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Healthcare plan provider Molina Healthcare, Inc. MOH is set to report first-quarter 2025 results on April 23, 2025, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at $5.86 per share on revenues of $11.12 billion. (See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.)
The first-quarter earnings estimate declined 2.5% over the past 60 days. However, the bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year increase of 2.3%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests year-over-year growth of 12%.
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Molina Healthcare beat the consensus estimate in three of the last four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being negative 1.3%. This is depicted in the figure below.
Molina Healthcare, Inc Price and EPS Surprise
Molina Healthcare, Inc price-eps-surprise | Molina Healthcare, Inc Quote
Q1 Earnings Whispers for MOH
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s not the case here.
MOH has an Earnings ESP of -17.79% and carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
What’s Shaping MOH’s Q1 Results?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for premiums indicates growth of 11.6% year over year in the first quarter, while our model estimate suggests a 12.4% increase. We expect Medicaid premiums to grow 7.4% year over year in the to-be-reported quarter. The consensus estimate for the Medicare premiums is $1.6 billion, up 9.3% year over year.
An aging U.S. population is likely to have sustained the solid demand for its Medicare plans in the first quarter. The Medicaid membership growth is likely to have been partially offset by the redetermination process.
Medicaid membership is expected to have decreased 0.5% year over year, while MOH’s Medicare membership is projected to witness 3.5% growth. Furthermore, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Marketplace membership suggests a 68.6% increase from the year-ago period.
However, the consensus mark for medical care ratio (MCR) in Marketplace is pegged at 76.51% in the to-be-reported quarter, up from 73.30% a year ago. The consensus mark for total MCR is pegged at 88.54%, marginally up from 88.50% a year ago.