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Last week, you might have seen that Modiv Industrial, Inc. (NYSE:MDV) released its third-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.9% to US$14.50 in the past week. Revenues of US$13m beat expectations by a respectable 3.8%, although statutory losses per share increased. Modiv Industrial lost US$0.86, which was 514% more than what the analysts had included in their models. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Modiv Industrial after the latest results.
See our latest analysis for Modiv Industrial
Taking into account the latest results, the twin analysts covering Modiv Industrial provided consensus estimates of US$49.2m revenue in 2024, which would reflect a discernible 3.8% decline over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 52% to US$0.52. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$51.6m and US$0.35 per share in losses. While next year's revenue estimates dropped there was also a considerable increase to loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.
There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$16.33, signalling that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite lower earnings per share forecasts.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Modiv Industrial's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 3.0% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 19% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.6% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Modiv Industrial's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Modiv Industrial. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at US$16.33, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.