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Moderna's stock (NASDAQ:MRNA) took a nosedive, plunging nearly 22% this morninga level not seen since April 2020. The biotech heavyweight stunned Wall Street with a bleak 2025 revenue forecast of $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion, miles below the already-downgraded $2.92 billion analysts had hoped for. Blame it on a shrinking Covid vaccine market, rising competition, and falling vaccination rates. The company's respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) shot hasn't exactly set the world on fire either, with negligible sales so far. Investors are left wondering if Moderna can still live up to its once-unshakeable pandemic-era hype.
So, what's the plan? Moderna's tightening its belt$1 billion in cost cuts for 2025 and another $500 million slashed in 2026. The company is betting big on diversification, aiming to launch 10 new products by 2028, including combo vaccines for Covid and flu. But here's the catch: its revenue from Covid and RSV shots in 2024 came in at just $3 billion, a massive drop from its $18 billion pandemic peak. The pipeline might be promising (think cutting-edge cancer treatments with Merck (NYSE:MRK)), but the cash burn is real, and investors are skeptical about whether those plans can shore up revenue before the war chest starts looking a little too empty.
The timing couldn't be worse. This announcement comes just before Moderna's presentation at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conferencea critical moment for the company to rally investor confidence. With its cash reserves at $9.5 billion, Moderna insists it's got the runway to reinvent itself. But for a stock that's now down over 60% in the last year, Wall Street wants more than promisesit wants proof. Investors will be watching closely to see if Moderna can still play in the big leagues or if its pandemic-fueled glory days are well and truly over.
This article first appeared on GuruFocus.