Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) institutional owners may be pleased with recent gains after 65% loss over the past year

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editorial-team@simplywallst.com (Simply Wall St)

Wed, Jan 22, 2025, 6:10 AM 4 min read

Given the large stake in the stock by institutions, Moderna's stock price might be vulnerable to their trading decisions
A total of 10 investors have a majority stake in the company with 51% ownership
Analyst forecasts along with ownership data serve to give a strong idea about prospects for a business

To get a sense of who is truly in control of Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA), it is important to understand the ownership structure of the business. With 69% stake, institutions possess the maximum shares in the company. That is, the group stands to benefit the most if the stock rises (or lose the most if there is a downturn).

Institutional investors would appreciate the 4.1% increase in share price last week, given their one-year losses have totalled a disappointing 65%.

In the chart below, we zoom in on the different ownership groups of Moderna.

See our latest analysis for Moderna

ownership-breakdown — NasdaqGS:MRNA Ownership Breakdown January 22nd 2025

What Does The Institutional Ownership Tell Us About Moderna?

Institutional investors commonly compare their own returns to the returns of a commonly followed index. So they generally do consider buying larger companies that are included in the relevant benchmark index.

As you can see, institutional investors have a fair amount of stake in Moderna. This implies the analysts working for those institutions have looked at the stock and they like it. But just like anyone else, they could be wrong. If multiple institutions change their view on a stock at the same time, you could see the share price drop fast. It's therefore worth looking at Moderna's earnings history below. Of course, the future is what really matters.

earnings-and-revenue-growth — NasdaqGS:MRNA Earnings and Revenue Growth January 22nd 2025

Investors should note that institutions actually own more than half the company, so they can collectively wield significant power. We note that hedge funds don't have a meaningful investment in Moderna. Looking at our data, we can see that the largest shareholder is Baillie Gifford & Co. with 11% of shares outstanding. With 10% and 6.5% of the shares outstanding respectively, The Vanguard Group, Inc. and BlackRock, Inc. are the second and third largest shareholders. In addition, we found that Stephane Bancel, the CEO has 5.5% of the shares allocated to their name.

On further inspection, we found that more than half the company's shares are owned by the top 10 shareholders, suggesting that the interests of the larger shareholders are balanced out to an extent by the smaller ones.

Researching institutional ownership is a good way to gauge and filter a stock's expected performance. The same can be achieved by studying analyst sentiments. There are plenty of analysts covering the stock, so it might be worth seeing what they are forecasting, too.

Insider Ownership Of Moderna

The definition of an insider can differ slightly between different countries, but members of the board of directors always count. Company management run the business, but the CEO will answer to the board, even if he or she is a member of it.

I generally consider insider ownership to be a good thing. However, on some occasions it makes it more difficult for other shareholders to hold the board accountable for decisions.

Our most recent data indicates that insiders own some shares in Moderna, Inc.. The insiders have a meaningful stake worth US$1.3b. It is good to see this level of investment. You can check here to see if those insiders have been buying recently.

General Public Ownership

The general public, who are usually individual investors, hold a 22% stake in Moderna. While this size of ownership may not be enough to sway a policy decision in their favour, they can still make a collective impact on company policies.

Next Steps:

I find it very interesting to look at who exactly owns a company. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too.

Many find it useful to take an in depth look at how a company has performed in the past. You can access this detailed graph of past earnings, revenue and cash flow.

If you are like me, you may want to think about whether this company will grow or shrink. Luckily, you can check this free report showing analyst forecasts for its future.

NB: Figures in this article are calculated using data from the last twelve months, which refer to the 12-month period ending on the last date of the month the financial statement is dated. This may not be consistent with full year annual report figures.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.