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Moderna (MRNA) cut its 2025 forecast by $1 billion Monday, citing weak demand for its newest vaccine as well as slow sales for its COVID-19 vaccine.
The company now expects $1.5 billion to $2 billion in revenue for 2025. Moderna's stock slid more than 20% in early trading Monday on the news to $33.05 per share — a fraction of its COVID highs of nearly $450 per share in 2021.
CEO Stéphane Bancel revealed the forecast at the annual JPMorgan healthcare conference in San Francisco and noted the company would continue its cost-cutting strategies into 2025.
(MRNA)
"In 2024, we achieved $3 billion to 3.1 billion in product sales, approval of our RSV vaccine, and continued to adapt our COVID-19 business for the endemic setting. At the same time, we reduced our cash operating cost by over 25% compared to 2023 and aim to reduce 2025 cash costs by $1 billion with a plan for an additional $500 million cost savings in 2026," Bancel said in a statement.
The 2024 winter virus season has seen slower respiratory vaccine demand, including for COVID and RSV, which most severely impact children and elderly adults. Moderna launched its RSV vaccine last year, following earlier approved vaccines from Pfizer (PFE) and GSK (GSK).
Walgreens' (WBA) earnings results for fiscal year 2024 last week also signaled a vaccine demand slowdown that could hit other vaccine makers during the upcoming earnings cycle. The retail pharmacy giant reported fewer than 1 million COVID vaccine sales in fiscal 2024, compared to 4.7 million in the previous year.
Analysts caution there could be more pain ahead for the once-thriving biotech.
Leerink Partners analyst Mani Foroohar noted that in addition to the sales guidance, two other products in the company's pipeline aren't looking strong in the near term.
"We are not surprised to see the stock down over 20% given (1) reduced FY24 sales guidance, (2) lack of clarity on COVID/flu combo, and (3) miss on interim CMV efficacy. All represent headwinds to growth prospects in 2025 — with CMV the largest single line-item at risk among the three — putting risk of future dilutive equity issuance on the table as return to profitability looks increasingly remote, and MRNA’s position in the S&P500 increasingly tenuous," Foroohar wrote to clients Monday.
Anjalee Khemlani is the senior health reporter at Yahoo Finance, covering all things pharma, insurance, care services, digital health, PBMs, and health policy and politics. That includes GLP-1s, of course. Follow Anjalee on social media platforms X (Twitter), LinkedIn Bluesky @AnjKhem.