Tobacco company Altria (NYSE:MO) fell short of the market’s revenue expectations in Q1 CY2025, with sales falling 4.2% year on year to $4.52 billion. Its non-GAAP profit of $1.23 per share was 3.5% above analysts’ consensus estimates.
Revenue: $4.52 billion vs analyst estimates of $4.64 billion (4.2% year-on-year decline, 2.5% miss)
Adjusted EPS: $1.23 vs analyst estimates of $1.19 (3.5% beat)
Adjusted EBITDA: $2.86 billion vs analyst estimates of $2.81 billion (63.3% margin, 1.7% beat)
Operating Margin: 39.6%, down from 56.7% in the same quarter last year
Free Cash Flow Margin: 59.3%, similar to the same quarter last year
Market Capitalization: $95.93 billion
StockStory’s Take
Altria’s first-quarter results reflected the impact of persistent consumer pressures and increased competition in smoke-free nicotine categories. Management emphasized Marlboro’s continued leadership in the premium segment, the volume growth of ON! nicotine pouches, and operational adjustments in response to shifting consumer preferences. CEO Billy Gifford stated that the company is leveraging data analytics and revenue management tools at the store level to address evolving purchasing behavior, pointing to “the cumulative impact of inflation” and competition from illicit e-vapor products as key challenges.
Looking ahead, management outlined its focus on navigating regulatory uncertainty in the U.S. e-vapor market, particularly in light of enforcement actions affecting NJOY products. CFO Sal Mancuso noted that full-year guidance incorporates limited expected impact from tariffs and assumes NJOY ACE does not return to the market this year. The company’s strategic priorities include advocating for regulatory reforms, reinforcing investments in smoke-free alternatives, and maintaining flexibility to adjust to ongoing macroeconomic headwinds.
Key Insights from Management’s Remarks
Altria’s management highlighted a mix of competitive, regulatory, and consumer dynamics shaping Q1 performance, with a particular emphasis on brand resilience and adaptation to market changes.
Marlboro’s premium market strength: Marlboro expanded its share within the premium segment, supported by targeted pricing strategies and data analytics, despite continued declines in overall cigarette volumes.
ON! nicotine pouch growth: ON! delivered 18% year-over-year shipment growth and increased its market share, driven by new marketing campaigns and higher consumer brand awareness. Management noted ON!’s ability to grow volume even as retail prices increased.
Regulatory and legal headwinds in e-vapor: The implementation of ITC exclusion orders led to the withdrawal of NJOY ACE from the market, prompting Altria to reassess its e-vapor product pipeline and pursue legal appeals while working on product redesigns to address patent issues.
Discount segment repositioning: The company ran pricing tests for its Basic brand to retain price-sensitive smokers migrating away from higher-priced products, while reiterating its main focus remains on premium offerings for profitability.
Illicit e-vapor market impact: Management attributed elevated cigarette volume declines and margin pressures to the growing presence of illicit flavored disposable e-vapor products, which now represent over 60% of the category. Altria is advocating for stronger regulatory enforcement to address this challenge.
Drivers of Future Performance
Management’s outlook for the remainder of the year centers on regulatory developments, consumer affordability, and competitive dynamics in both traditional and next-generation tobacco categories.
Regulatory enforcement and e-vapor pipeline: The company’s ability to compete in the e-vapor market depends on regulatory clarity, enforcement against illicit products, and expedited product authorizations. Altria is investing in new e-vapor products to align with evolving consumer preferences.
Consumer purchasing power: Management remains cautious about the effects of ongoing inflation and tariffs on consumer discretionary income, which could drive further downtrading to discount brands or illicit products.
Smoke-free product expansion: The continued growth and innovation in the ON! nicotine pouch line, as well as potential entry into synthetic nicotine, are expected to play a significant role in long-term revenue diversification and category transformation.
Top Analyst Questions
Matt Smith (Stifel): Asked about the relative influence of macroeconomic pressures versus cross-category movement on cigarette volume declines. CEO Billy Gifford emphasized that “flavors and choice flexibility” in illicit e-vapor are primary drivers, but price sensitivity is rising.
Gaurav Jain (Barclays): Inquired whether ON!'s growth trajectory is at risk due to increased competition, and if Altria should pursue a multi-brand or synthetic nicotine strategy. Management indicated satisfaction with ON!’s performance and highlighted upcoming ON! PLUS authorization.
Bonnie Herzog (Goldman Sachs): Questioned Marlboro’s share loss and the sustainability of operating income growth in smokables, especially after legal fee reductions. Management reiterated its focus on long-term profitability and brand support over short-term share fluctuations.
Faham Baig (UBS): Sought clarity on the early impact of new tariffs on disposable vape imports and pricing. CEO Billy Gifford said enforcement is still in early stages, with minimal observable effects so far but potential for stricter border actions.
Emma Rumney (Reuters): Asked about the effect of tariffs on consumer sentiment and Altria’s cost structure. CFO Sal Mancuso responded that the impact on input costs is limited, but cumulative inflation and tariffs are being closely monitored for consumer effects.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In the coming quarters, the StockStory team will monitor (1) enforcement trends and regulatory developments affecting the U.S. e-vapor market, including the status of NJOY product relaunches, (2) continued momentum and innovation in the ON! nicotine pouch brand, and (3) evidence of stabilization or further decline in cigarette volumes as economic pressures and illicit product competition evolve. Progress on regulatory advocacy and new product authorizations will also be key markers of execution.
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