Can Mixed Fundamentals Have A Negative Impact on Aurelia Metals Limited (ASX:AMI) Current Share Price Momentum?

editorial-team@simplywallst.com (Simply Wall St)

Mon, Apr 14, 2025, 2:52 PM 3 min read

Most readers would already be aware that Aurelia Metals' (ASX:AMI) stock increased significantly by 33% over the past three months. But the company's key financial indicators appear to be differing across the board and that makes us question whether or not the company's current share price momentum can be maintained. In this article, we decided to focus on Aurelia Metals' ROE.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

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How Is ROE Calculated?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Aurelia Metals is:

4.3% = AU$14m ÷ AU$329m (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).

The 'return' is the yearly profit. That means that for every A$1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated A$0.04 in profit.

Check out our latest analysis for Aurelia Metals

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

Aurelia Metals' Earnings Growth And 4.3% ROE

It is quite clear that Aurelia Metals' ROE is rather low. Not just that, even compared to the industry average of 12%, the company's ROE is entirely unremarkable. For this reason, Aurelia Metals' five year net income decline of 35% is not surprising given its lower ROE. However, there could also be other factors causing the earnings to decline. For instance, the company has a very high payout ratio, or is faced with competitive pressures.

However, when we compared Aurelia Metals' growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 20% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.

past-earnings-growth — ASX:AMI Past Earnings Growth April 14th 2025

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. Is Aurelia Metals fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

Is Aurelia Metals Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Because Aurelia Metals doesn't pay any regular dividends, we infer that it is retaining all of its profits, which is rather perplexing when you consider the fact that there is no earnings growth to show for it. It looks like there might be some other reasons to explain the lack in that respect. For example, the business could be in decline.

Summary

On the whole, we feel that the performance shown by Aurelia Metals can be open to many interpretations. While the company does have a high rate of profit retention, its low rate of return is probably hampering its earnings growth. That being so, the latest industry analyst forecasts show that the analysts are expecting to see a huge improvement in the company's earnings growth rate. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.