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Earlier this month, Moderna convinced investor to send the stock higher from $39.38 only to $47.43 just in a week driven by a positive bag of factors such as a Q4 earnings surprise and a $176 million award for advancing bird flu vaccine. But today, the vaccine maker stands as the top decliner by decreasing 21.16% to $33.20 after the company lowered its 2025 guidelines.
Moderna adjusted its 2025 annual revenue to fall between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion from previously forecasted to be around $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion. The lowered sales forecast is because of several reasons, such as the intensification of competition in the Covid market, declining vaccination rates, and uncertainties in manufacturing contracts and recommendation for RSV revaccination.
Stock price can fluctuate for any narrative reasons but in the long run the market will always peg it to the performance.
GuruFocus Score for Moderna is 58 out of 100, noting that it has weak profitability, moderate growth with considerable strength in capital.
Moderna was thriving during Covid-19 pandemic when its mRNA-based Covid-19 vaccine was successfully distributed to cater global urgent need. Beyond the timeframe, it is a loss business.
From the past decade, we can learn that Moderna needs at least $10 billion annual revenue to have a profit bottom line. Forecasted revenue of around $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion will likely result to a loss end.
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This article first appeared on GuruFocus.