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It's shaping up to be a tough period for Micro-X Limited (ASX:MX1), which a week ago released some disappointing yearly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Earnings missed the mark, with revenues of AU$15m falling badly (35%) short of expectations. Losses were mildly higher, with a AU$0.018 per-share loss being 6.9% above what the analyst modelled. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what expert is forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimate suggests is in store for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Micro-X
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Micro-X's lone analyst is for revenues of AU$29.1m in 2025. This reflects a major 91% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of AU$30.6m and AU$0.008 per share in losses. So we can see that while the consensus made a minor downgrade to revenue estimates, it no longer provides an earnings per share estimate. This suggests that the market is now more focused on revenue after the latest result.
The average price target fell 16% to AU$0.21, withthe analyst clearly having become less optimistic about Micro-X'sprospects following its latest earnings.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analyst is definitely expecting Micro-X's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 91% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 40% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analyst also expect Micro-X to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The clear low-light was that the analyst cut their forecast revenue estimates for Micro-X next year. They also downgraded Micro-X's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Yet - earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analyst also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.