Is Michael Hill International Limited's (ASX:MHJ) Recent Price Movement Underpinned By Its Weak Fundamentals?

editorial-team@simplywallst.com (Simply Wall St)

Mon, Apr 7, 2025, 2:18 PM 3 min read

With its stock down 25% over the past three months, it is easy to disregard Michael Hill International (ASX:MHJ). We, however decided to study the company's financials to determine if they have got anything to do with the price decline. Long-term fundamentals are usually what drive market outcomes, so it's worth paying close attention. In this article, we decided to focus on Michael Hill International's ROE.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

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How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Michael Hill International is:

0.5% = AU$989k ÷ AU$185m (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. That means that for every A$1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated A$0.01 in profit.

See our latest analysis for Michael Hill International

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

Michael Hill International's Earnings Growth And 0.5% ROE

As you can see, Michael Hill International's ROE looks pretty weak. Even when compared to the industry average of 15%, the ROE figure is pretty disappointing. Given the circumstances, the significant decline in net income by 8.9% seen by Michael Hill International over the last five years is not surprising. However, there could also be other factors causing the earnings to decline. For instance, the company has a very high payout ratio, or is faced with competitive pressures.

So, as a next step, we compared Michael Hill International's performance against the industry and were disappointed to discover that while the company has been shrinking its earnings, the industry has been growing its earnings at a rate of 7.2% over the last few years.

past-earnings-growth — ASX:MHJ Past Earnings Growth April 7th 2025

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Michael Hill International is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E , relative to its industry.

Is Michael Hill International Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

While the company did payout a portion of its dividend in the past, it currently doesn't pay a regular dividend. This implies that potentially all of its profits are being reinvested in the business.

Conclusion

In total, we're a bit ambivalent about Michael Hill International's performance. Even though it appears to be retaining most of its profits, given the low ROE, investors may not be benefitting from all that reinvestment after all. The low earnings growth suggests our theory correct. That being so, the latest industry analyst forecasts show that the analysts are expecting to see a huge improvement in the company's earnings growth rate. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.