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Mensch und Maschine Software SE's (ETR:MUM) recent soft profit numbers didn't appear to worry shareholders, as the stock price showed strength. However, we think the company is showing some signs that things are more promising than they seem.
We've discovered 1 warning sign about Mensch und Maschine Software. View them for free.
Examining Cashflow Against Mensch und Maschine Software's Earnings
One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.
Mensch und Maschine Software has an accrual ratio of -0.17 for the year to March 2025. Therefore, its statutory earnings were very significantly less than its free cashflow. In fact, it had free cash flow of €42m in the last year, which was a lot more than its statutory profit of €29.8m. Mensch und Maschine Software did see its free cash flow drop year on year, which is less than ideal, like a Simpson's episode without Groundskeeper Willie.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
Our Take On Mensch und Maschine Software's Profit Performance
As we discussed above, Mensch und Maschine Software's accrual ratio indicates strong conversion of profit to free cash flow, which is a positive for the company. Based on this observation, we consider it possible that Mensch und Maschine Software's statutory profit actually understates its earnings potential! And on top of that, its earnings per share have grown at 31% per year over the last three years. Of course, we've only just scratched the surface when it comes to analysing its earnings; one could also consider margins, forecast growth, and return on investment, among other factors. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Mensch und Maschine Software at this point in time. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Mensch und Maschine Software you should be aware of.