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The European Central Bank’s next German policy maker will bring with her an extensive portfolio of research into how financial systems throughout history have coped with war, bubbles and hyperinflation.
Isabel Schnabel was formally nominated by euro-area finance ministers last week to fill the vacancy opened by Sabine Lautenschlaeger’s unexpected resignation. Perhaps mindful that three German board members in a row have quit early, the government eschewed the traditional recruiting grounds of the Bundesbank -- and, in one case, politics -- and went for an academic.
A glance at the University of Bonn professor’s research shows a taste for historical crises. It suggests that while she’s no anti-stimulus hardliner, she’ll have an acute eye on the risks of the ECB’s strategy of pumping huge volumes of liquidity into the economy in an attempt to revive inflation.
In one paper on 400 years of asset bubbles, she and Princeton University Professor Markus Brunnermeier concluded that they’re typically preceded by an expansionary monetary policy -- no surprise there -- but that “the severity of the economic crisis following the bursting of a bubble is less linked to the type of asset than to the financing of the bubble.”
Schnabel is “definitely not one of the hawks” but also “not as dovish as some people might think,” said Brunnermeier. He described her as “balanced and more European.”
That paper in 2015 acknowledged that the strategy known as leaning against the wind -- or trying to preempt bubbles by tightening policy early -- can work but is also “fraught with difficulties.”
In a 2004 report written with Hyun Song Shin, Schnabel looked back to a 1763 financial crisis that swept northern Europe and saw parallels with more recent episodes. The pattern of interlocking credit relationships and high debt leverage prompted distressed sales of assets and a severe liquidity crisis.
“Whilst the financial institutions have changed fundamentally in the intervening 200 or so years, the underlying problems appear to be universal,” they concluded.
Read more: Why We Love to Call Everything a Bubble
Schnabel is already an adviser to German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s administration and has done the same for the European Systemic Risk Board, which makes proposals to safeguard against systemic risk. Former ECB President Mario Draghi praised her as an excellent economist.
German Tension
There are hopes that she’ll mend fraught relations between the ECB and Germany by explaining its policies to her compatriots, though she passed on an early opportunity on Wednesday. The latest report by the council of economic experts criticized the decision to restart quantitative easing, pointing to “significant risks and repercussions.” Schnabel abstained from opinions on monetary policy in light of her nomination.