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As you might know, Medios AG (ETR:ILM1) recently reported its full-year numbers. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at €0.51, some 47% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at €1.9b. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Medios from four analysts is for revenues of €1.98b in 2025. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 5.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 133% to €1.15. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €2.00b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.32 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the substantial drop in new EPS forecasts.
Check out our latest analysis for Medios
The consensus price target held steady at €25.50, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Medios, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €32.00 and the most bearish at €18.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Medios' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 5.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 24% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 4.0% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Medios' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.