Medifast, Inc. MED is likely to register a decrease in both top and bottom lines when it reports first-quarter 2025 earnings on April 28, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter revenues is pegged at $119.9 million, which indicates a 31.4% decline from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
Although the consensus mark for first-quarter bottom line has narrowed by 13 cents in the past 30 days to a loss of 7 cents, the projection indicates deterioration from 66 cents reported in the year-ago quarter. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)
MED delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 152.6%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the company surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a margin of 137%.
Key Factors to Note Before MED’s Upcoming Earnings Release
Medifast continues to face a difficult macroeconomic environment, marked by mounting competitive pressures within the health and wellness industry, the disruptive impact of GLP-1 weight loss medications and a broader decline in consumer discretionary spending. These challenges are likely to have prevailed and clouded the company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.
On its fourth-quarter earnings call, management projected revenues between $100 million and $120 million for the first quarter of 2025, reflecting the sustained difficulties in attracting new customers and maintaining coach engagement. This downside can be attributed to evolving dynamics of the weight loss market, with the rapid uptake of GLP-1 therapies continuing to alter consumer preferences and behavior.
Medifast’s bottom line is also likely to have been negatively impacted in the first quarter. The company projected the bottom line to be between break-even and a loss of 50 cents. This guidance underscores the financial strain resulting from declining sales volumes, elevated customer acquisition costs and continued investment in strategic initiatives.
Despite the ongoing challenges, Medifast has been actively pursuing a range of strategic initiatives to reignite its growth momentum. The company has focused on broadening its product portfolio, diversifying customer acquisition strategies and enhancing the overall consumer experience. MED has been realizing benefits from its "Fuel for the Future" program, an enterprise-wide cost optimization initiative designed to improve operational efficiency. These strategic actions are likely to have provided some cushion against the broader pressures faced during the quarter under review.
What the Zacks Model Predicts for MED
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Medifast this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Medifast currently has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of 0.00%.
Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are some companies which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around.
Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. SFM currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.44% and a Zacks Rank of 1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
SFM's top line is anticipated to increase year over year when it reports first-quarter 2025 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.19 billion, which implies 16.3% growth from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
The company is expected to register an increase in the bottom line. The consensus estimate for Sprouts Farmers’ first-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.53 per share, indicating 36.6% growth from the year-ago quarter. SFM delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 15.1%, on average.
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. BJ presently has an Earnings ESP of +2.09% and a Zacks Rank of 2. BJ's top line is anticipated to advance year over year when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2025 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $5.18 billion, which indicates a 5.3% increase from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
The company is expected to register growth in the bottom line. The consensus estimate for BJ's Wholesale Club’s fiscal first-quarter earnings is pegged at 91 cents per share, implying an increase of 7.1% from the year-ago quarter. BJ delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 12%, on average.
Freshpet FRPT currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.56% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register top-line growth when it reports first-quarter 2025 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Freshpet’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $262.3 million, which indicates nearly 17.2% growth from the prior-year quarter.
The company is expected to register a decrease in the bottom line. The consensus estimate for Freshpet’s first-quarter earnings is pegged at 13 cents per share, indicating a 38.1% decrease from the year-ago quarter. FRPT delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 78.8%, on average.
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