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Despite posting some strong earnings, the market for Hut 8 Corp.'s (NASDAQ:HUT) stock hasn't moved much. Our analysis suggests that shareholders have noticed something concerning in the numbers.
View our latest analysis for Hut 8
Examining Cashflow Against Hut 8's Earnings
In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.
Hut 8 has an accrual ratio of 0.57 for the year to June 2024. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. And indeed, during the period the company didn't produce any free cash flow whatsoever. Over the last year it actually had negative free cash flow of US$97m, in contrast to the aforementioned profit of US$185.1m. We also note that Hut 8's free cash flow was actually negative last year as well, so we could understand if shareholders were bothered by its outflow of US$97m. Having said that, there is more to the story. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part. One positive for Hut 8 shareholders is that it's accrual ratio was significantly better last year, providing reason to believe that it may return to stronger cash conversion in the future. As a result, some shareholders may be looking for stronger cash conversion in the current year.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?
Unfortunately (in the short term) Hut 8 saw its profit reduced by unusual items worth US$39m. If this was a non-cash charge, it would have made the accrual ratio better, if cashflow had stayed strong, so it's not great to see in combination with an uninspiring accrual ratio. While deductions due to unusual items are disappointing in the first instance, there is a silver lining. We looked at thousands of listed companies and found that unusual items are very often one-off in nature. And that's hardly a surprise given these line items are considered unusual. Assuming those unusual expenses don't come up again, we'd therefore expect Hut 8 to produce a higher profit next year, all else being equal.