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Investors were disappointed with the weak earnings posted by Medexus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (TSE:MDP ). However, our analysis suggests that the soft headline numbers are getting counterbalanced by some positive underlying factors.
See our latest analysis for Medexus Pharmaceuticals
Zooming In On Medexus Pharmaceuticals' Earnings
In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
Medexus Pharmaceuticals has an accrual ratio of -0.24 for the year to September 2024. That implies it has very good cash conversion, and that its earnings in the last year actually significantly understate its free cash flow. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of US$19m, well over the US$2.30m it reported in profit. Medexus Pharmaceuticals' free cash flow improved over the last year, which is generally good to see. However, that's not all there is to consider. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?
Medexus Pharmaceuticals' profit was reduced by unusual items worth US$4.8m in the last twelve months, and this helped it produce high cash conversion, as reflected by its unusual items. This is what you'd expect to see where a company has a non-cash charge reducing paper profits. While deductions due to unusual items are disappointing in the first instance, there is a silver lining. We looked at thousands of listed companies and found that unusual items are very often one-off in nature. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. If Medexus Pharmaceuticals doesn't see those unusual expenses repeat, then all else being equal we'd expect its profit to increase over the coming year.