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Shareholders appeared unconcerned with Knorr-Bremse AG's (ETR:KBX) lackluster earnings report last week. We think that the softer headline numbers might be getting counterbalanced by some positive underlying factors.
See our latest analysis for Knorr-Bremse
Zooming In On Knorr-Bremse's Earnings
Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.
Knorr-Bremse has an accrual ratio of -0.30 for the year to December 2024. That implies it has very good cash conversion, and that its earnings in the last year actually significantly understate its free cash flow. To wit, it produced free cash flow of €1.0b during the period, dwarfing its reported profit of €445.5m. Knorr-Bremse shareholders are no doubt pleased that free cash flow improved over the last twelve months.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
Our Take On Knorr-Bremse's Profit Performance
Happily for shareholders, Knorr-Bremse produced plenty of free cash flow to back up its statutory profit numbers. Because of this, we think Knorr-Bremse's underlying earnings potential is as good as, or possibly even better, than the statutory profit makes it seem! On the other hand, its EPS actually shrunk in the last twelve months. The goal of this article has been to assess how well we can rely on the statutory earnings to reflect the company's potential, but there is plenty more to consider. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Knorr-Bremse at this point in time. You'd be interested to know, that we found 1 warning sign for Knorr-Bremse and you'll want to know about this.