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MaxLinear, Inc. (NASDAQ:MXL) shareholders will doubtless be very grateful to see the share price up 42% in the last quarter. But the last three years have seen a terrible decline. Indeed, the share price is down a whopping 74% in the last three years. Arguably, the recent bounce is to be expected after such a bad drop. The thing to think about is whether the business has really turned around.
On a more encouraging note the company has added US$347m to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the three-year loss for shareholders.
Check out our latest analysis for MaxLinear
MaxLinear wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally hope to see good revenue growth. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.
In the last three years MaxLinear saw its revenue shrink by 21% per year. That's definitely a weaker result than most pre-profit companies report. And as you might expect the share price has been weak too, dropping at a rate of 20% per year. We prefer leave it to clowns to try to catch falling knives, like this stock. It's worth remembering that investors call buying a steeply falling share price 'catching a falling knife' because it is a dangerous pass time.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. You can see what analysts are predicting for MaxLinear in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 34% in the last year, MaxLinear shareholders lost 3.6%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 2% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand MaxLinear better, we need to consider many other factors. Even so, be aware that MaxLinear is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...