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As you might know, Matrix Service Company (NASDAQ:MTRX) last week released its latest third-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of US$200m missing analyst predictions by 6.9%. Worse, the business reported a statutory loss of US$0.12 per share, much larger than the analysts had forecast prior to the result. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Matrix Service's two analysts is for revenues of US$1.01b in 2026. This reflects a huge 36% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Matrix Service is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$1.08 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.05b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.04 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that while sentiment around revenues has declined following the latest results, the analysts are now more bullish on the company's earnings power.
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The consensus price target fell 5.6% to US$17.00, with the analysts signalling that the weaker revenue outlook was a more powerful indicator than the upgraded EPS forecasts.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Matrix Service's past performance and to peers in the same industry. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Matrix Service is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 28% annualised growth until the end of 2026. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 6.4% annual decline over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 7.7% annually. So it looks like Matrix Service is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Matrix Service's earnings potential next year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. Even so, long term profitability is more important for the value creation process. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Matrix Service's future valuation.