Match Group (MTCH) Q1 Earnings Preview: What to Expect?

Match Group, Inc. MTCH is set to report first-quarter 2017 earnings results on May 2.

The company went public in Nov 2015 and in its first earnings announcement, as a publicly-traded company, Match Group had missed earnings estimates by 5.3%.

The succeeding quarters proved to be much better, with the company’s earnings beating estimates in three of the four trailing quarters, for an average beat of 13.2%. Last quarter, it reported in-line earnings.

Let's see how things are shaping up for its sixth earnings report as a public company.

Key Factors Influencing Q1 Results

Match Group is the world’s foremost provider of dating products and operates a portfolio of over 45 brands. Three of its biggest and best known brands are Match.com, OkCupid and Tinder. The company’s reputation, established user base and size should prove to be favorable in the upcoming earnings.

About 60% of the company’s revenues come directly from the users of its dating services in North America, mostly in the form of membership subscriptions. Online dating has been expanding, as users from more demographics join the fray. Most of Match Group’s users connect from mobile devices, where conversion to paid members is also higher. Last quarter, its dating revenues rose 22% year over year, driven by solid contribution from Tinder, Pairs and PlentyOfFish. This momentum bodes well for the company’s top-line growth in the quarter under review.

Match Group has been making profits for the past three years and recording top-line growth as well. The company is currently enjoying strong growth, driven by robust growth momentum at Tinder, solid performances from Meetic and Match, as well as the recently acquired, PlentyOfFish.

However, the company is vulnerable to the cannibalization of users and revenues across its competing platforms. In fact, its average revenue per paying user was flat year over year in the last reported quarter, reflecting the shift of the company’s focus toward lower-paying brands, such as Tinder and OkCupid. The numbers were also adversely affected by appreciation of the U.S. dollar. These factors might affect the company’s top line in this quarter too.

Online dating is, by nature, a highly competitive and fragmented industry. New players and free services keep snatching market share, which makes it tough for established players to retain a foothold in the market. Further, the company has been struggling with monetization of its services, in the face of intensifying competition in the online dating space, with apps like Bumble, Hinge and Coffee Meets Bagel. This might just prove detrimental to the company’s top-line growth in the coming quarters.