In This Article:
(Bloomberg Opinion) -- It was an Uber year for Masayoshi Son and his SoftBank Vision Fund. One in which WeWorked out just how much attention he could Grab by saying Ola to lots of cash while actually being quite Slack on stuff that matters, like corporate governance and profits. Critics Wagged their fingers at the improbable bets, even when he tried to make lemonade from the year’s biggest failure.
The numbers are so bad, you have to laugh. Uber: down 37% since IPO. WeWork: valuation cut by 80%. Wag: sold back to founders at a loss. But Son will bounce back. He has to, because he has another Vision Fund to raise and run. Instead of being cowed into humility, it’s more likely he’ll double down and make even more fantastical bets with other people’s money. To help him out, I did a multivariate analysis(1) based on past SoftBank deals to come up with a list of investments he ought to consider.
A K-Pop BandFor all the preppy tunes and perfect cheekbones, Korean Pop bands are really just assets. Money is poured in, data are crunched, and if the algorithm works as planned, money comes back out. There’s buzz and superficial sheen, pure investment-bait for Son. Of course, this is an industry with a dark side. Suicides, assaults, and allegations of prostitution remind us that these impossibly beautiful super idols are vulnerable humans who have “a highly controlled relationship with fans,” as Matthew Campbell and Soohee Kim wrote in Bloomberg Businessweek. Scandal has never kept Son away, though, and given his enthusiasm for AI (a fancy word for number-crunching), a K-Pop band would hit the right note.
AirYeah. Really. If a French company can bottle water from a little town on the shores of Lake Geneva (called Evian-les-Bains), then Son could certainly can air from the Himalayas or the Antarctic. More recent thirst-quenching fads have ranged from from La Croix to hydrogen water. So it makes sense that something as bizarre as canned air would make it into the SoftBank portfolio. That stuff would be flying off shelves in Australia or India recently if marketed according to spiking pollution levels. There’s an app? Masa can invest in that, too.
Saudi AramcoTo be frank, Saudi Arabia’s state oil company isn’t really the kind of thing SoftBank should be putting money into because oil is just not futuristic enough. Data is said to be the new oil anyway. But then, taking Saudi money is something many believe Son shouldn’t be doing at all in light of the murder of writer Jamal Khashoggi. Son has pledged not to abandon the Saudis — after all, they gave $45 billion to the Vision Fund — and so that commitment may as well include throwing support behind Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and his nation’s largest asset. Riyadh ended up settling for a $1.7 trillion market cap at IPO, after previously assuring everyone that it was worth at least $2 trillion. While it hit that figure within days of listing, the shortfall at IPO is equivalent to three Vision Funds. After WeWork’s $40 billion drop in value, Masa will feel right at home.