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Marriott will broadcast its Wednesday, September 27, “Security Analyst Meeting” live (details here). It’ll be the first such presentation the world’s largest hotelier has given since 2019.

The company has a few goals.

• Executives want to give analysts a deeper understanding of the company’s fundamentals.

• They want to showcase the company’s management team and its strategic vision.

• They hope to create buzz about Marriott among investors.

• Expect to hear some updates on how Marriott’s hotels have performed since August 1, when it reported earnings.

The day will have its limitations.

• It’s unlikely Marriott will share any groundbreaking information not already contained in its financial filings.

• Expect to see charts of the company’s modeling that suggest possibilities rather than forecasts.

• For instance, expect to see charts with potential three-year ranges for net room growth and revenue per available room (essentially a measure of gross revenue coming in).

• The last Investor Day presentation starred CEO Arne Sorenson, who died in 2021. Reading the transcript from 2019 is a sad reminder of his loss.

Robin Farley of UBS Research said one figure she will closely watch will be revenue per available room (RevPAR).

• The consensus of all investment analysts is that Marriott will show 2% revenue per available room growth next year and 3% growth in 2025. Will management guide analysts to that, or coming in lower or higher?

• “Our regression model suggests U.S. RevPAR growth of +1% in 2024, and we have Marriott a little ahead of that at +2% in 2024,” Farley wrote.

• “We are a little more conservative in our 2025 estimate for RevPAR at +1%, given the macro uncertainty at the moment,” she wrote. “But we believe that a low single-digit range for RevPAR guidance after 2023 would be in line with investor expectations, and a more aggressive piece of guidance could actually be taken negatively if investors were to view it as too optimistic.”

Conor Cunningham at Melius Research is eyeing net room growth.

• Gross fees from franchise and management contracts represented three-quarters of Marriott’s net revenues over the past year. So each net room at a quality property that Marriott adds should contribute incrementally to the bottom line. So, net room growth is a good proxy for overall earnings growth.

• The broader Marriott’s footprint becomes, the more valuable its loyalty program becomes, too. That’s because consumers are more likely to be repeat customers if Marriott always has a place wherever they need to go.

• “Given the issues with the capital markets, there has been growing concern around the ability to grow rooms in 2024 and beyond,” Cunningham wrote this week.

• “Near-term, there likely needs to be an uptick in conversions [of properties that are independent or flagged with another brand] to bridge the tough financing environment [that makes hotel construction more costly],” Cunningham wrote. “Over the next several years, we continue to assume 4% annual net room growth led by international expansion and conversions.”