Russia's of Ukraine in February sent commodity and currency markets reeling – but there are signs that the chaos might finally be over.Alexandra Beier/Stringer via Getty Images; Alexei Nikolsky/Getty Images; iStock Photo; Vicky Leta/Insider
Prices for commodities like oil, natural gas and wheat soared after Russia invaded Ukraine in February.
The euro fell below parity with the dollar as markets fretted the war would trigger an economic crisis.
These 5 charts show the market chaos sparked by Russia's invasion may finally be coming to an end.
Russia's war in Ukraine rattled commodity and currency markets in 2022, but there are signs that the worst of the disruption may be over.
Crude oil, natural gas, and food prices have all fallen back to their prewar levels, after spiking in the immediate wake of Russia's invasion in late February, and then again in summer.
Meanwhile, the euro has staged a 7% rally against the dollar over the past three months, having fallen below parity with the US currency for the first time in over two decades earlier this year.
These five charts show that the market crisis sparked by Russia's invasion may finally be coming to an end.
Energy prices slip to pre-war levels
Benchmark oil prices soared in the weeks after war broke out in Ukraine, peaking at just under $130 a barrel on March 8.
Russia is the world's second-largest crude exporter, so western sanctions against the Kremlin like the US's oil embargo squeezed global supply and drove prices higher.
But Brent and West Texas Intermediate oil prices have fallen steadily since July and now trade close to their pre-war levels at around $80 a barrel.
China, which is the world's largest oil importer, has struggled to reopen its economy after two years of harsh "zero-COVID" lockdowns. A sharp rise in workers testing positive for the virus has weighed on the country's demand for crude.
The combination of a global recession and central bank interest-rate hikes next year could further suppress prices, even if the war between Russia and Ukraine drags on, strategists said.
"In large part, oil prices have declined in recent months due to recessionary fears and increasing interest rates in many developed economies," said Jorge Leon, a senior oil markets research strategist at Rystad Energy.
"A worsening of the situation in Ukraine could also provide bearish signals to the market as a result of the global economic slowdown," he told Insider.
Natural gas prices soared in the summer too. Dutch TTF futures rose nearly 300% between February and late August as Russia cut off flows through key pipelines such as Nord Stream 1.
But like oil, benchmark natural gas prices have retreated in the second half of the year to under 100 euros ($106) per megawatt hour. That means they are now up only around 10% from pre-invasion levels.
The European Union asked its member states to try to reach their gas storage targets several months early, after Russia invaded Ukraine. Meanwhile, countries including Germany and Greece have bought giant floating terminals so that they can import liquefied natural gas by sea.
"The gas crisis for this winter is over," Saxo Bank's head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen told Insider. "The combination of very strong inventory levels and record shipments of LNG will likely prevent any risk to supply."
Food prices edge lower
Ukraine is often described as "the breadbasket of Europe" because it produces and exports vast amounts of wheat and corn to the continent.
Wheat futures prices nearly doubled to spike at $14.25 per bushel two weeks after war broke out, while corn futures prices edged up 16% to $7.81 per bushel between February and July.
But like oil and natural gas, both commodities now trade close to their pre-war levels.
Prices have fallen since July – the month that Turkey brokered a deal between Russia and the United Nations to allows key food exports to continue from three Ukrainian ports.
"The UN plan, which also paves the way for Russian food and fertilizer to reach global markets, will help to stabilize spiraling food prices worldwide and stave off famine," the organization said in a statement.
Euro bounces back
The euro plunged against the dollar in the immediate aftermath of Russia's invasion and continued to struggle for most of 2022.
War in Ukraine hammered investors' confidence in the Eurozone economy, while the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes made the dollar more attractive than the euro for investors seeking higher yields.
The euro fell below parity with the greenback for the first time in 20 years on September 2, and traded below 96 cents at the end of that month for its weakest level of 2022.
But the euro has mounted a comeback in the final quarter of the year, rallying by over 10% to hit $1.06.
The European Central Bank has signaled it'll bring in outsized rate hikes in 2023 to clamp down on inflation, while investors expect the Fed to ease up on tightening next year.
Currencies also reflect an area's economic health.
Russia stoked a European energy crisis earlier this year by slashing gas flows. But the cold season has been less chilly than expected, and that has limited Moscow's ability to keep disrupting the Eurozone economy, one strategist said.
"The warmer start to the winter period alleviated some concerns about energy depletion and gas security," Oanda market analyst Craig Erlam told Insider.
"Europe's probably still either in or heading for a recession – but it's not just about technical definitions, it's about the depths of said recession," he added. "So that's helped to lift the Euro."
