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The all-important month of March entered and exited like a lamb, monthly freight data from Cass Information Systems showed.
Freight shipments didn’t see the typical positive seasonal inflection in March, coming in just flat sequentially and down 2.1% when seasonally adjusted. The volumes dataset was off 5.3% compared to a year ago, continuing a streak of year-over year mid-single-digit declines to four months.
February provided a bit of a snapback for freight volumes (up 4.9% seasonally adjusted) following severe weather in January and some inventory pull-forward ahead of tariffs.
March 2025
y/y
2-year
m/m
m/m (SA)ShipmentsExpendituresTL Linehaul Index
The Monday report said a recent 90-day pause on many tariffs could again lead to “pre-tariff shipping in Q2,” a portion of which could be offset by escalating tariffs with China. The long-term impact from a trade war, however, will be damaging to freight demand, the report concluded.
“Volumes may also be temporarily supported in the coming months as consumers scoop up pre-tariff goods before prices go up. But thereafter, the trade war is likely to extend the for-hire freight recession as higher prices reduce goods affordability and consumers’ real incomes.”
The forecast calls for a 4% y/y decline in freight volumes during April.
The March update provides another gloomy data point for the first-quarter earnings season, which begins Tuesday when multimodal operator J.B. Hunt Transport Services (NASDAQ: JBHT) reports after the market closes. Analysts have been pulling quarterly and full-year numbers down over the past few weeks in anticipation of further protraction to the downturn after entering the year with a more constructive outlook.
Expedited less-than-truckload carrier and freight forwarder Forward Air (NASDAQ: FWRD) already flagged 10% to 15% of its revenue as being in jeopardy due to the recently announced tariffs. Other companies are likely to provide similar updates in the coming weeks.
Cass’ freight expenditures data, which measures total freight spend including fuel, increased 2.8% from February (up 1.5% seasonally adjusted) and was down just 2% y/y, the smallest decline since the beginning of 2023.
With shipments off 5% y/y but total expenditures down just 2%, inferred freight rates were likely 3% higher y/y during the month. The index has posted small sequential gains on average since September, suggesting “the pricing environment is relatively steady and rising modestly.”
The outlook calls for inferred rates to increase by low- to mid-single digits this year.