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One thing we could say about the analysts on Manz AG (ETR:M5Z) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts went under the knife, suggesting analysts have soured majorly on the business. Bidders are definitely seeing a different story, with the stock price of €4.85 reflecting a 22% rise in the past week. Whether the downgrade will have a negative impact on demand for shares is yet to be seen.
Following the latest downgrade, the current consensus, from the dual analysts covering Manz, is for revenues of €170m in 2024, which would reflect a considerable 17% reduction in Manz's sales over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to ameliorate slightly, reducing to €3.09. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €231m and losses of €1.17 per share in 2024. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase.
See our latest analysis for Manz
The consensus price target fell 26% to €6.15, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. One more thing stood out to us about these estimates, and it's the idea that Manz's decline is expected to accelerate, with revenues forecast to fall at an annualised rate of 17% to the end of 2024. This tops off a historical decline of 0.7% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 6.8% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Manz to suffer worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that analysts increased their loss per share estimates for this year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. Given the scope of the downgrades, it would not be a surprise to see the market become more wary of the business.
Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2026, which can be seen for free on our platform here.