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We count the Costco COST and AutoZone AZO releases for their respective fiscal quarters ending in May as part of our June-quarter tally.

As such, the AutoZone and Costco quarterly reports have kicked off the Q2 earnings season for us, even though we still have a few Q1 earnings releases to await. In fact, by the time the big banks put the spotlight on the Q2 reporting cycle by releasing their June-quarter results on July 14^th, we will have seen such May-quarter results from more than two dozen S&P 500 members.

Costco handily beat consensus estimates for earnings, revenues, and same-store sales (comps). Same-store sales for the quarter were up +8%, excluding gasoline and the impact of foreign exchange fluctuations. This follows +9.1% comp growth in the preceding period relative to estimates of +6.3%.

Of particular significance is the high single-digit comp growth in Costco’s non-food merchandise, which can be compared to the discretionary or general merchandise categories at other retailers, such as Walmart and Target. A significant part of Costco’s discretionary strength likely reflects the retailer’s high-income customer base, but it is also likely gaining market share in these product categories.

Costco continues to execute well despite the tariff challenges. Management reiterated on the call that merchandise at the domestic business is mostly sourced from within the U.S., with only about a quarter of Costco U.S. sales dependent on imports.

Looking beyond Costco and AutoZone, the expectation is for Q2 earnings for the S&P 500 index to increase by +5.4% from the same period last year on +3.7% higher revenues. This will be a material deceleration from the +12% earnings growth in Q1 on +4.7% revenue growth.

We have been regularly flagging in recent weeks that 2025 Q2 earnings estimates have been steadily decreasing, as shown in the chart below.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The magnitude of cuts to 2025 Q2 estimates since the start of the period is bigger and more widespread relative to what we have become used to seeing in the post-COVID period.

Since the start of April, Q2 estimates have declined for 15 of the 16 Zacks sectors (Aerospace is the only sector whose estimates have increased), with the largest cuts to the Transportation, Autos, Energy, Basic Materials, and Construction sectors.

Estimates for the Tech and Finance sectors, the largest contributors to the S&P 500 index, which account for more than 50% of all index earnings, have also been cut since the quarter began. But as we have been pointing out in recent weeks, the revisions trend for the Tech sector has notably stabilized, which you can see in the chart below.