The S&P’s post-election rollercoaster … how Jeff Clark is trading volatility … crypto jumps after rumors of a Trump executive order … how to profit if 2025 is flat
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On Tuesday November 5, Donald Trump won his second term in the White House
By early-December, the S&P was up more than 5%, and many individual stocks had climbed double-digits.
For example, EPAM Systems (EPAM) popped more than 30% over the same period… Axon Enterprise (AXON) rose over 50%… and Tesla (TSLA) exploded roughly 90%.
So, with stocks getting off to such a strong start after Trump’s victory, what was the total return for the S&P 500 between November 5th and one week ago today?
0%.
Chart showing the S&P round-tripping after surging after Trump's win in November
Source: TradingView
Meanwhile, many of those high-flyers are still up, but they’re down considerably from December.
What was behind the pullback?
Here’s Jeff Clark, the latest addition to our suite of expert analysts:
The answer can be found in an old saying familiar to investors of every type: “The market hates uncertainty.”
Now that we stand on the starting line for Trump 2.0, what’s actually going to happen?
Some of the burning questions include:
Will tariffs reignite inflation?
How will the Federal Reserve respond?
Can Trump get more tax cuts?
Can Trump lead the charge to beat the rest of the world in AI, electric vehicles, and crypto?
How will the world respond to the huge change in America’s global politics?
Can Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) really reduce the size of the federal government by $2 trillion? What will be the effects of that?
What fights are going to happen in Congress? Remember, Trump was impeached twice in his first term.
There are a lot of unknowns, and political turmoil can create a roller coaster in the markets.
And during Trump’s first 100 days, when he has promised massive overhauls to the federal government and the economy, investors are likely to feel whiplash from the market volatility.
Now, let’s return to our S&P analysis from above.
Obviously, the market didn’t shut down last Friday, which was the bookend for our prior study of returns. What’s happened this week?
The S&P has jumped more than 3% as I write nearing lunch.
For many investors, this “volatility whiplash” is nerve-racking. But for professional traders like Jeff, it’s something very different…
Opportunity.
And under Trump 2.0, Jeff sees a lot of volatility and opportunity coming.
Trump-based volatility and the ensuing trading opportunities is what Jeff will be highlighting this coming Wednesday at 1 PM ET
Back to Jeff:
For those who know how to play volatility, Trump’s first 100 days in office could be the most profitable of your life.
It’s all about knowing how to trade volatility.
For a great visual illustrating the profit-potential of volatility, let’s look at Tilray Brands (TLRY), which is a global leader in the production and research of medical cannabis.
As you’ll see below, between mid-June 2023 and this past October, buy-and-hold investors in TLRY found themselves sitting on returns of 0%.
But for traders, that same period in TLRY was the gift that kept giving.
Take a look at some of the price swings during that stretch.
Between mid-June 2023 and this past October, buy-and-hold investors in TLRY found themselves sitting on returns of 0%. But for traders, that same period in TLRY was the gift that kept giving. The chart shows massive volatility.
Source: TradingView
Accomplished traders have a huge advantage over investors during volatile markets…
While the buy-and-hold crowd grows frustrated or sticks their heads in the sand to avoid the pain of watching stomach-churning moves, traders simply ride the wave in front of them – whether that wave is up or down.
To be clear, buy-and-hold investing is a wise and appropriate decision for most investors. But to rely solely on buy-and-hold potentially means missing out on substantial returns. Not just a few bucks here and there, but truly needle-moving gains.
An example of such needle-moving gains comes from Jeff’s trading history during Trump’s first term
From Jeff:
In January 2017, Trump signed an executive order stating any U.S. pipeline work had to use American-made steel.
Traders piled into a steel rally and pushed the price of United States Steel (X) up almost 30% in less than a month. But beneath the surface, the company wasn’t in good shape. And the executive order took longer to implement than people thought.
U.S. Steel’s price collapsed just three months after that executive order.
U.S. Steel’s price surge then collapse during Trump 1.0
Source: TradingView
But veteran investors like me stuck to proven strategies and patterns. We didn’t jump into the latest hot trend based on headlines.
Using my system, traders could’ve executed a bullish trade on January 25 – the day after the executive order was signed – and tripled their money.
Then, using my system to find bearish patterns, traders could’ve tripled their money again on the downside move.
Tripling your money (twice) in four months is the domain of traders, not buy-and-hold investors.
For one sector that appears ripe for massive volatility, Jeff suggests that traders look at crypto, which is in the headlines this morning
As I write Friday, Bitcoin is up more than 4% today after reports that President-elect Donald Trump could issue an executive order declaring crypto a national priority as soon as his first day in office.
Here’s CNBC:
The moves follow a Bloomberg report late Thursday that Trump could create the crypto advisory council he previously promised, giving the industry a voice within his administration.
A bitcoin stockpile is part of discussions about a possible executive order that would cover several areas of crypto policy, the New York Times reported the same day.
Love it or hate it, the crypto sector doesn’t like to stay still – which means potential profits for traders.
Here’s Jeff:
Think about the profit potential that will come with cutting red tape on emerging tech like crypto.
Trump has already come out in full support of building a strategic bitcoin reserve, which helped drive bitcoin to unprecedented levels… and gave my own readers a 42% gain on one of my favorite ways to play bitcoin… in just two trading days.
One of the ways Jeff trades crypto is with bitcoin miners. For a sense of the opportunity, below, we look at the chart of leading miner TeraWulf (WULF) from early-November through yesterday.
As a preview of what you’re going to see, with our starting early-November price as our constant, WULF’s returns:
Topped gains of more than 40% then dropped
Topped gains of 30% then dropped
Topped gains of 40% a second time then dropped
Topped gains of 35% then dropped
Fell to a loss of -15% then rallied
Fell to a loss of-15% a second time then rallied
Chart showing extreme volatility (and profit potential) in WULF's stock
Source: TradingView
That’s a lot of trade potential.
Meanwhile, over the same period, what did buy-and-hold investors get for their patience?
A loss.
Again – yes, buy-and-hold is a foundational component of a long-term portfolio, but trading gains can be an enormous tailwind for wealth-creation when markets are bouncing up and down…yet going nowhere.
By the way, for you crypto enthusiasts, here’s a tip from Jeff…
Watch Bitcoin miners to offer clues about which way Bitcoin itself is about to break. Jeff recently told me that this often happens because the market discounts the price of miners ahead of time, based on what it believes to be the coming Bitcoin move.
Turning to the broad market, Jeff said wouldn’t be surprised to see the S&P end 2025 flat…
And yet within that potential go-nowhere market, he could envision double-digit percentage price swings that whipsaw investors.
If so, that means buy-and-hold could have a sideways year…while traders have an abundance of opportunity.
If you’re interested in adding opportunistic trading to your investment toolkit, join Jeff this coming Wednesday at 1 PM ET. I’ll add that Jeff’s 40+ years in the business have shaped him into a fantastic teacher. I think you’ll walk away from his presentation a more informed investor, at a minimum.
I’ll give Jeff the final word:
Trump’s first 100 days in office are going to be marked by market volatility.
But I want you to start replacing the word “volatility” with “profit opportunities” in your head.
This is how I’ve thought about volatility over my 42-year trading career. It’s how in 2007-2009, I had 25-plus triple-digit winners for my subscribers – some in as little as one day – when everyone else was losing their shirts.
With Trumps’s focus on deregulating and cutting taxes… the backing of billionaires… his business mindset… and his “no holds barred” mentality that throws world markets into a loop on a dime… you can see how this is setting up to be the most volatile period in our lifetimes.
But again… most volatile, to me, means most profitable.
As long as you have the right strategy and mentality.
And I’ve been working for more than 40 years to develop the strategies that I’ll share with you on Wednesday, January 22, at 1 p.m. ET. So be sure to reserve your spot for The Most Profitable 100 Days of Your Life right here.
