Yahoo Finance

A business strategy built on resilience

These financial achievements yet again demonstrate the success of Mainstreet’s value-add business model and nimble management style. Ever since we started trading on the TSX in 2000, Mainstreet has continued to expand our portfolio by consistently adding value and re-investing low-cost capital to aggressively acquire apartment units at opportunistic prices, then repeating the formula. Once acquired, we upgrade units to a consistent standard and return them to the rental market to derive additional value. Combined with an agile management team that adeptly prepares for and responds to changing market conditions, this strategy has helped fortify Mainstreet against outside volatility, allowing us to deliver compounding shareholder returns no matter where we are in the economic cycle. These efforts have provided Mainstreet with a solid foundation for future growth, based on a multitude of inherent advantages that include:

• Highly affordable rents: With an average mid-market rental rate of just $1,200, Mainstreet offers quality rental options at a time of rapid inflation, making us a crucial provider of affordable living for middle-class Canadians.

• Growth without dilution: Our adherence to 100% organic, non-dilutive growth continues to generate financial returns without sacrificing value. In the last two decades, Mainstreet stock has increased exponentially from $3.6 per share to more than $200, while the number of shares in circulation has remained largely unchanged (9.3 million shares today, compared with 8.9 million when MEQ debuted).

• Portfolio diversity: Due to the strategic nature of our acquisitions, Mainstreet now enjoys a highly diversified portfolio across Western Canada, including a newly expanded footprint in Manitoba and parts of B.C. We have expanded our portfolio to more than 18,500 units—each clustered around key urban hubs—underscoring Mainstreet’s uniquely tangible value proposition within the real estate space. Roughly 42% of our portfolio’s NAV based on IFRS value is in BC, one of the country’s most robust rental markets and a primary target for driving Mainstreet’s future NOI growth.

Positive market fundamentals continue in 2025

In addition to Mainstreet’s internal achievements, our management team also expects plenty of external tailwinds as we begin the new fiscal year. Despite the potential for political uncertainty, we believe that highly favourable macroeconomic trends will persist given the deep and structural nature of those forces, which we identify as the following:

1. Systemically undersupplied housing markets: The fundamental supply-demand imbalance in Canada’s real estate market is the result of more than a decade of compounding shortages that will likely take as many years to unwind. In the last 10 years, Canada’s population has grown by 5.85 million (Statistics Canada), while the number of new purpose-built rental apartment units over the same period totaled 390,917, illustrating the extent of the supply gap. Meanwhile, inflationary construction costs, regulatory red tape, municipal building code restrictions and other factors are likely to further hinder new supply, prolonging the current imbalance for years to come. Lastly, elevated construction costs combined with relatively low rental rates have driven replacement costs higher, rendering many new builds inherently uneconomic.

2. Strong population growth: Canada’s explosive population growth in recent years was largely a result of an influx of permanent residents, international students and temporary workers, the majority of whom tend to be renters. While the federal government has plans to curb immigration rates in coming years (by 21% for permanent residents and 10% for international students in 2025), overall intake levels will remain much higher than previous averages. Canada will still accept 395,000 permanent residents and 437,000 international students this year after accounting for the reductions, for example. Federal government officials have reiterated that immigration remains a cornerstone of Canada’s economic growth. Furthermore, high immigration rates will add to Canada’s residual newcomer population. As of 2023, there were 2.55 million international students and temporary workers living in Canada, according to the federal government. That alone is more than the country’s entire rental universe of 2.3 million.

3. Low vacancies: High population growth, combined with limited new housing supply, should continue to put downward pressure on rental vacancies, which are at a historic low of 1.5%, according to CMHC. As a result, rental rates in Mainstreet’s core markets of Calgary, Edmonton, Vancouver/Lower Mainland, Regina and Saskatoon are projected to climb in 2025.

4. Falling interest rates: The Bank of Canada has signalled possible interest rate cuts in 2025 as inflation levels return to normal. Debt remains our single-largest expense, and lower interest rates present savings opportunities. Mainstreet currently has over $500 million in clear-title assets that can be converted into lower-cost financing options should interest rates continue to fall. As ever, we maintain an agile approach to debt management that will adapt to changes in monetary policy (see Outlook section). Currently, 99% of Mainstreet debt is locked into CMHC-insured mortgages at an average interest rate of 3.01%, maturing in an average 4.8 years, to protect against future interest rate changes.

5. Emerging acquisition opportunities backed by ample liquidity: The current potential for political turbulence and possible tariffs, while creating some challenges, also lends itself to Mainstreet’s countercyclical growth strategy. While we always remain conservative in our approach to potential deals, we believe 2025 could offer substantial opportunity for Mainstreet to continue pursuing its 100% organic, non-dilutive growth model, funded in part by our sizable liquidity position—currently estimated at $413 million—which provides ample dry powder for expanding our asset base.

CHALLENGES

Political uncertainties

Despite our expectations of an overall favourable operating environment in fiscal 2025, external risks like a trade dispute with the U.S. could put significant strain on Canada’s broader economy. Tit-for-tat import tariffs are generally inflationary and would raise costs on some building materials, which were already elevated following the pandemic. The spectre of import tariffs on Canadian oil exports in particular, while not currently realized, would significantly diminish Alberta’s economic output.

Inflationary pressures

Inflation increases major operating expenses like labour, utilities and materials. Mainstreet works constantly and on multiple fronts to counteract rising expenses. By securing longer-term natural gas contracts, we substantially reduced energy costs across a large portion of Mainstreet buildings. We managed to reduce our insurance costs, a significant Mainstreet expense, by more than 20% for fiscal 2025 by obtaining improved premium rates and coverage. Despite our best efforts to control costs where possible, inflationary pressures nonetheless introduce added financial burdens that will, in some cases, be passed onto tenants through soft rent increases over an extended period of time.

Taxes

Carbon taxes, which ultimately raise costs on landlords, increased to $80 per tonne this year, and are scheduled to rise to $95 per tonne in April 2025. Property taxes in Vancouver/Lower Mainland, Calgary, Edmonton, Regina and Saskatoon are all set to rise in coming years in line with municipal spending plans. Lastly, Mainstreet is now liable for corporate taxes for one of the first times in our history due to our sustained growth and solid financial performance in recent years. We view our performance as an unmitigated success, and do not expect corporate taxes to have a material impact on Mainstreet’s overall growth and performance going forward.

OUTLOOK

Putting the S in ESG

We believe that the ongoing housing shortage emphasizes Mainstreet’s position as an important provider of affordable housing in Canada. Due to our commitment to corporate social responsibility, Mainstreet is proud to offer a crucial service at a time when high costs have priced many middle-class Canadians out of the market.

Strong performance across Western Canada

British Columbia, due to government-imposed rental rate caps in the province, offers an especially large mark-to-market gap in BC, which can drive improvements in NOI (see Runway section below). Nearly half (48%) of our acquisitions last year were in BC, and we will continue to analyze further buying options in order to capitalize on the province’s especially low vacancy rates.

Alberta leads the country in terms of population growth, economic output and employment. The province added 204,000 residents between mid-2023 and mid-2024 alone, and ATB Financial forecasts that international net migration into Alberta will reach 46,000 this year and 42,000 the next, well higher than the previous 2013 peak. The country contributed 46% of Canada’s new jobs generated in Q4 2024, according to Statistics Canada, despite accounting for only 12% of the nation’s population. The provincial government is forecasting 2.7% GDP growth this year, the highest in the country, underpinned by rising output in Alberta’s oil and gas, tourism, and tech sectors.

Saskatchewan’s economic growth of 2.3% in 2023, the latest available period, was the second-fastest among provinces, and its net migration has remained solid at around 6,000 newcomers per quarter through 2024. Manitoba’s net migration hit 4,500 in Q3 2024, as we expect growing populations and moderate economic growth in both provinces to keep downward pressure on vacancy rates.

Turning intangibles to tangibles

We expect that the housing crunch will continue driving municipal re-zoning efforts, as evidenced by the City of Calgary’s recent proposal to extend building height limits to encourage density. Such moves align with Mainstreet’s ongoing plans to leverage our portfolio of more than 900 low-density buildings—including buildings with subdividable residual lands—in order to extract added value out of existing assets and additional lands at little cost. Management has developed a three-point plan comprised of the following:

• Turning unused or residual space within existing buildings into new units

• Exploring zoning and density relaxations to potentially build new capacity within existing land footprints

• Subdividing residual lands for future developments.

We view this strategy as a major potential driver of growth longer-term, and further evidence of Mainstreet’s intangible value. Management is currently drafting a list of Mainstreet’s clear title assets to determine the scope of these intangibles.

Hedging our debts

As part of our adaptive approach to mortgage positions, Mainstreet has favoured shorter-term debt maturities in recent years to control costs and maximize savings. As always, we are monitoring the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy closely, and will revert back to longer-term mortgages when interest rates justify such a shift.

Raising Mainstreet’s nominal dividend

Mainstreet started offering a nominal dividend ($0.11 per share annually) beginning Q1 2024. Given the apparent success of the nominal dividend based on early-stage performance, our management team now plans to raise the dividend by 45% (to $0.16 per share annually) beginning Q1 2025. Due to Mainstreet’s solid free cash flow, we determined we were well placed to establish a nominal dividend to help widen our shareholder base (including bigger exposure to retail investors), increase trading volume and elevate our market capitalization without negatively impacting liquidity for future non-dilutive growth.

RUNWAY ON EXISTING PORTFOLIO

1. Expanding our portfolio: Using our liquidity position, estimated at $413 million, we believe there is significant opportunity to continue acquiring underperforming assets at attractive valuations.

2. Closing the NOI gap: As of Q1 2025, 14% of Mainstreet’s portfolio was going through the stabilization process due largely to high levels of add-value acquisitions. Our management team believes vacancy rates, NOI and FFO will be meaningfully improved as we continue to stabilize units. In the BC market alone, we estimate that the potential upside based on mark-to-market gaps for NOI growth is approximately $30 million, based on an estimated average monthly mark-to-market gap of $634 per suite per month. Alberta and Saskatchewan markets also have substantial room for mark-to-market catch up.

3. Buying back shares: We believe MEQ shares continue to trade below their true NAV, and that ongoing macroeconomic volatility could intensify that trend. Management will continue to buy back shares on an opportunistic basis under the corporation’s normal course issuer bid.

4. Creating value from existing footprints: While our efforts to identify opportunities for subdivisions, zoning relaxations, and improved use of residual space remains in the very early stages, Mainstreet has created a ledger detailing excess lands in our potential subdividable properties across our portfolio.

Forward-Looking Information

Certain statements contained herein constitute "forward-looking statements" as such term is used in applicable Canadian securities laws. These statements relate to analysis and other information based on forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable and assumptions of management. In particular, statements concerning estimates related to future acquisitions, dispositions and capital expenditures, increase or reduction of vacancy rates, increase or decrease of rental rates and rental revenue, future income and profitability, timing of refinancing of debt and completion, timing and costs of renovations, increased or decreased funds from operations and cash flow, the Corporation's liquidity and financial capacity, improved rental conditions, future environmental impact the Corporation's goals and the steps it will take to achieve them the Corporation's anticipated funding sources to meet various operating and capital obligations and other factors and events described in this document should be viewed as forward-looking statements to the extent that they involve estimates thereof. Any statements that express or involve discussions with respect to predictions, expectations, beliefs, plans, projections, objectives, assumptions of future events or performance (often, but not always, using such words or phrases as "expects" or "does not expect", "is expected", "anticipates" or "does not anticipate", "plans", "estimates" or "intends", or stating that certain actions, events or results "may", "could", "would", "might" or "will" be taken, occur or be achieved) are not statements of historical fact and should be viewed as forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future events or performance and by their nature involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, including those risks described in this Annual Information Form under the heading "Risk Factors", that may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the Corporation to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such risks and other factors include, among others, costs and timing of the development of existing properties, availability of capital to fund stabilization programs, other issues associated with the real estate industry including availability but without limitation of labour and costs of renovations, fluctuations in vacancy rates, unoccupied units during renovations, rent control, fluctuations in utility and energy costs, credit risks of tenants, fluctuations in interest rates and availability of capital, and other such business risks as discussed herein. Material factors or assumptions that were applied in drawing a conclusion or making an estimate set out in the forward-looking statements include, among others, the rental environment compared to several years ago, relatively stable interest costs, access to equity and debt capital markets to fund (at acceptable costs) and the availability of purchase opportunities for growth in Canada. Although the Corporation has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual actions, events or results to differ materially from those described in forward-looking statements, other factors may cause actions, events or results to be different than anticipated, estimated or intended. There can be no assurance that such statements will prove to be accurate as actual results and future events could vary or differ materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking statements. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements contained herein.

Forward-looking statements are based on Management's beliefs, estimates and opinions on the date the statements are made, and the Corporation undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements if these beliefs, estimates and opinions should change except as required by applicable securities laws or as otherwise described therein.

Certain information set out herein may be considered as "financial outlook" within the meaning of applicable securities laws. The purpose of this financial outlook is to provide readers with disclosure regarding the Corporations reasonable expectations as to the anticipated results of its proposed business activities for the periods indicated. Readers are cautioned that the financial outlook may not be appropriate for other purposes.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250204880734/en/

Contacts

For further information: Bob Dhillon, Founder, President & CEO
D: +1 (403) 215-6063
Executive Assistant: +1 (403) 215-6070
100, 305 10 Avenue SE, Calgary, AB T2G 0W2 Canada
TSX: MEQ
https://www.mainst.biz/
https://www.sedarplus.ca