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Mader Group Limited (ASX:MAD) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 14% in the last week. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last half decade have been spectacular. To be precise, the stock price is 442% higher than it was five years ago, a wonderful performance by any measure. Arguably, the recent fall is to be expected after such a strong rise. Of course what matters most is whether the business can improve itself sustainably, thus justifying a higher price.
In light of the stock dropping 14% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive five-year return.
View our latest analysis for Mader Group
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Over half a decade, Mader Group managed to grow its earnings per share at 23% a year. This EPS growth is slower than the share price growth of 40% per year, over the same period. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. That's not necessarily surprising considering the five-year track record of earnings growth.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
We know that Mader Group has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? This free interactive report on Mader Group's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Mader Group, it has a TSR of 501% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 22% in the last year, Mader Group shareholders lost 8.6% (even including dividends). Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 43%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Mader Group that you should be aware of.