Macy’s (M), down 13% after reporting its 7% first quarter sales decline, has continued to cast a shadow on retail and the future for mall traffic.
But during the company’s conference call with analysts, management called out a couple of categories that may be especially at risk.
Weak categories
Macy’s CFO Karen Hoguet emphasized that handbags were a particular soft spot. This could have negative implications for Michael Kors (KORS), which gets 14% of its sales from Macy’s, according to Piper Jaffray. In addition, women’s shoes were weak, which could mean bad news for Steve Madden (SHOO), which gets 9% of its sales from the retailer. And lastly, fashion watches were negative, especially as smart watches take share. Fossil (FOSL), with 7% exposure to Macy’s, reflected this weakness in its own quarterly report on Tuesday.
The conference call pointed out three bright spots in retail
The active category was called out positively, which has positive read-throughs for Under Armour (UA) and Nike (NKE) which have been bucking retail slowdown trends. Both stocks are up 360% and 170% over the last five years, while major retailers have declined.
Macy’s also highlighted its investment and focus on the beauty category, building on its recent acquisition of Blue Mercury (an area where L Brand’s (LB) Victoria’s Secret has also increased focus).
Lastly, the retailer called out was the off-price category, where Macy’s has been building out its Backstage off-price concept. Off-price leaders TJX (TJX) and Ross Stores (ROST) have outperformed the category over the last five years.
While the traditional retailers, from Macy’s Backstage to Nordstrom’s (JWN) Rack have tried to offset the slowdown in traditional stores with off-price build-out, many analysts say it’s too little, too late.