M&A Has Been Stuck for Years. Trump's Return Could Change That.

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Yuki Iwamura / Bloomberg / Getty Images The Capital One bid for Discover Financial Services, which would create the largest US credit card company, is still awaiting regulatory approval

Yuki Iwamura / Bloomberg / Getty Images

The Capital One bid for Discover Financial Services, which would create the largest US credit card company, is still awaiting regulatory approval


Key Takeaways

  • Deals are expected to rise in 2025 under a Trump White House, with the doors opening after a run of years when elevated interest rates and a tough regulatory regime weighed on deal-making.

  • Among the reasons M&A is expected to increase next year: cheaper funding due to lower interest rates, a solid economy, and a Trump presidency, which is expected lead to looser antitrust regulations.

  • Market watchers say chief executive officers who have been on the sidelines are considering deals again.



Get ready for an M&A boom next year.

Deals are expected to rise in 2025 under a Trump White House, with the doors opening after a run of years when elevated interest rates and a tough regulatory regime weighed on deal-making. This year alone saw several high-profile deals scrapped, from JetBlue Airways’ (JBLU) attempt to buy out budget carrier rival Spirit Airlines (SAVEQ) to Kroger’s (KR) attempted takeover of grocery rival Albertsons (ACI).

That will change, pretty much everyone expects. Funding is expected to get cheaper, with the Federal Reserve extending its interest-rate-cutting cycle, lowering borrowing costs, even as the central bank struggles with the last mile of its inflation fight. The economy, meanwhile, appears on solid footing, with stock markets strong, easing the path for stock-for-stock deals.

And, crucially, Donald Trump, a fan of looser regulation, was again elected president. The Biden administration took a comparatively muscular approach to antitrust vetting, blocking more mergers because of competitive concerns than did previous administrations, according to bankers and analysts, who said even deals that might have gone unchallenged in past years faced challenges during the current administration.

New FTC, Justice Department Appointments Likely More Open to M&A

The president-elect already has taken steps relevant to M&A with his appointments. Republican lawyer Andrew Ferguson was appointed as his nominee for the next chairman of the Federal Trade Commission, succeeding Lina Khan, who was famously tough on deals. And Gail Slater has been named to head the Justice Department's antitrust arm, replacing Jonathan Kanter. The FTC and the Justice Department share authority over antitrust enforcement.

Both Ferguson and Slater are likely to be more open to deal-making and "likely come with a more traditional, lighter touch antitrust framework," Morgan Stanley analysts wrote earlier this month. “This should drive up animal spirits and improve corporate clarity in an M&A environment where market conditions are already supportive for activity."