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It hasn't been the best quarter for Lynas Rare Earths Limited (ASX:LYC) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 15% in that time. But in stark contrast, the returns over the last half decade have impressed. It's fair to say most would be happy with 269% the gain in that time. So while it's never fun to see a share price fall, it's important to look at a longer time horizon. Ultimately business performance will determine whether the stock price continues the positive long term trend.
Let's take a look at the underlying fundamentals over the longer term, and see if they've been consistent with shareholders returns.
Check out our latest analysis for Lynas Rare Earths
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Over half a decade, Lynas Rare Earths managed to grow its earnings per share at 47% a year. The EPS growth is more impressive than the yearly share price gain of 30% over the same period. So one could conclude that the broader market has become more cautious towards the stock.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..
What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
Investors should note that there's a difference between Lynas Rare Earths' total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. Lynas Rare Earths hasn't been paying dividends, but its TSR of 274% exceeds its share price return of 269%, implying it has either spun-off a business, or raised capital at a discount; thereby providing additional value to shareholders.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 15% in the last year, Lynas Rare Earths shareholders lost 7.7%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 30% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Lynas Rare Earths (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.