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Lundin Gold Inc. (TSE:LUG) just released its first-quarter report and things are looking bullish. Results were good overall, with revenues beating analyst predictions by 5.9% to hit US$345m. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at US$0.61, some 3.6% above whatthe analysts had expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Lundin Gold's six analysts is for revenues of US$1.51b in 2025. This reflects a decent 14% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to climb 15% to US$2.57. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.50b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.41 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.
See our latest analysis for Lundin Gold
The consensus price target was unchanged at CA$52.63, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Lundin Gold analyst has a price target of CA$66.50 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CA$42.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Lundin Gold's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 19% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 28% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Lundin Gold's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.