Lululemon Athletica Earnings Preview: 3 Things to Watch

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Lululemon Athletica (NASDAQ: LULU) will report earnings for the fourth quarter on Tuesday, March 27, after the market close. The yoga-apparel specialist has been building momentum over the past two quarters in its men's category and digital sales -- two important growth opportunities where management has been investing heavily. These two areas, along with international growth, will be in the spotlight when Lululemon reports fourth-quarter earnings.

A man and woman running while wearing Lululemon apparel.
A man and woman running while wearing Lululemon apparel.

IMAGE SOURCE: LULULEMON ATHLETICA.

Guidance points to a strong quarter

The stronger-than-expected holiday shopping season caused management to raise guidance in January for both revenue and earnings per share. The new guidance calls for Q4 revenue to be in the range of $905 million to $915 million, which represents growth of 15% at the midpoint of guidance over the prior-year's comparable quarter.

Comparable-store sales -- which include direct-to-consumer sales -- are expected to be in the high single digits, which is consistent with the year-ago quarter.

Over the last few years, operating margin has been under pressure from management's increased hiring activity, as well as investments to grow the online sales channel. Most of the investment on the digital side is complete, which is expected to ease the pressure on operating margin in Q4. As a result, non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) are expected to grow 26% over the year-ago quarter, to between $1.25 and $1.27 per share.

As for full-year numbers, management expects revenue for fiscal 2017 to be in a range of $2.59 billion to $2.60 billion, which represents growth of 13% at the midpoint of guidance over fiscal 2016. And when it comes to the bottom line, management expects full-year non-GAAP EPS to increase 15.2% over fiscal 2016, to a range of $2.45 to $2.48 per share.

The 3 things to watch

While management continues to open stores in North America, the three biggest growth opportunities are in the e-commerce, men's, and international sales categories. How well Lululemon does in these three areas will define how the company performs going forward.

1. Direct to consumer (DTC): This channel includes online sales and made up 21.2% of total revenue in the third quarter. DTC growth has been hovering between 26% to 29% over the past two quarters, which is the highest level of growth for the channel since fiscal Q4 2015.

Management has invested heavily in its online business, with a total makeover of the website presentation over the last year, which seems to be attracting more customers. They are also blending the in-store shopping experience with online by allowing customers to pick up online orders in-store, as well as ship from the store. These additional services seem to be paying off, as well.