Lower mortgage rates should breathe life into OKC's dispirited home sales, but not yet
Richard Mize, The Oklahoman
Updated 6 min read
OKC home sales slumped more in November, and the supply crept up again with so many sitting unsold — slowing both month to month, which can be explained by the usual decline toward the end of the year, and year over year, showing the persistence of malaise in the market.
That's with some relief lately from dipping interest rates, but the full effect of that probably won't be felt until next year unless they trend up again.
The national average home loan rate this week was 6.67% for the traditional 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage, down from 6.95% last week, Freddie Mac reported Thursday. It was below 7% for the second week in a row after 17 weeks higher.
“Lower rates are bringing potential homebuyers who were previously waiting on the sidelines back into the market and builders already are starting to feel the positive effects," said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.
Keri Gray, broker and owner of KG Realty, has this home on five acres at 13130 W Memorial Road near Yukon listed for $615,000. The 2,915-square-foot home, built in 1996, has four bedrooms, two bathrooms and one half-bath.
Some buyers have given up on 2023, said Keri Gray, broker and owner of KG Realty.
"I have a lot of clients looking to move in 2024, but as for 2023, it has been my slowest year on record," she said. "Buyers are waiting for the bottom to fall out because they are wanting 'deals.' I do not think these 'deals' are going to be what we saw in the mid-2000s."
The new year could take some of the advantage away from home sellers
The new year will bring a better market for buyers, said Emily Frosaker, an agent with West + Main Homes in OKC's Paseo Arts District.
"The hopeful buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines for rates to drop are beginning to think about a plan and get pre-approved to enter 2024. We are expecting a busy new year and spring," she said.
What happened with home sales, prices, and inventory in the OKC metro area
Entry way of 13601 Firethorn Drive is pictured near Piedmont. The 2,624-square-foot home is listed for $428,000 with Keri Gray, broker and owner of KG Realty. It has four bedrooms, four baths, and was built in 2018.
In November, according to the Oklahoma City Metro Association of Realtors' Multiple Listing Service, MLSOK:
Sales were down 10% compared with October, and down 7.3% year over year, with 1,123 transactions.
Inventorywas nearly flat, but grew 0.3% month to month, with nine more homes listed with Realtors, and 23.5% year over year, to 3,367, a supply to last 76 days if no more were listed. That's 2.5 months. A supply of five to seven months is regarded as a balanced market, with neither buyers nor sellers having the upper hand in negotiations.
The average price gained 0.6% month over month and 3.7% year over year, to $312,793.
The median price, considered a better gauge because it discounts extremes, ticked up 1.2% month over month and 1.6% year over year, to $263,000.
“Although the number of closings dipped slightly compared to last year, we are starting to see positive signs in the market, ” said Janel Randall, president of the MLSOK board and managing broker at Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Paramount.
“More homes are being listed, prices are stable and pending sales look strong, despite high interest rates," she said. ”We’re not seeing the red-hot market of a few years ago, but this is a time when buyers and sellers can both find good options."
What an Oklahoma City Realtor sees in the single-family housing market
Keri Gray, broker and owner of KG Realty, has this home on five acres at 13130 W Memorial Road near Yukon listed for $615,000.
From Keri Gray, KG Realty:
"In general, I am not seeing people move just to move. Right now, we are dealing with life changes which are causing them to move − divorces, getting remarried, estates from people passing, job transfer, etc."
"I think buyers are underestimating Oklahoma and what is going on here. We have a lot of exciting things happening in the west by Mustang and Yukon with the Ampitheater. Oklahoma City just passed the bond for the new downtown arena. Edmond, Deer Creek and Piedmont are all busting at the seams."
"Sellers need to hang tight because the buyers will be buying. If a buyer finds a property they love, then I am advising them to buy because the prices of homes just keep going up. They can always refinance once the rates come down. Also, MOST lenders do not promote this, but they are allowing buyers to do a one-time low or no-cost refinance within a certain time period."
Advice for homebuyers and sellers in the Oklahoma City market
This 2,624-square-foot home at 13601 Firethorn Drive near Piedmont is listed for $428,000 with Keri Gray, broker and owner of KG Realty. It has four bedrooms, four baths, and was built in 2018.
FromEmily Frosaker, West + Main Homes:
"Home buyers, Realtors, and mortgage industry experts are excited to see rates stabilize as we end 2023. I am currently educating buyers about 2-1 buydowns (low rate first year, somewhat higher rate second year, then full rate), available grant money for first time buyers, and having discussions about seller concessions with home buyers to help ease some pain of the higher interest rates."
"Some of the buyers who purchased at or around 4% who have had housing needs change will begin to see rates in the 5's (hopefully). When this happens there is a high possibility for a mass buyer rush into the market and a quick flip to a seller's market in 2024."
"My advice to prospective buyers is to hire an agent before you start shopping for homes, and speak to a local mortgage lender so you understand your buying power."
"For sellers, my advice would be to have a Realtor look at your home so you are prepared with pricing and strategy. Discuss a plan for your situation with a professional. Find someone who understands the market and is staying on top of current marketing trends so they can market your home properly."
What happened with home prices in November in central and western Oklahoma
The OKC-area numbers prepared for The Oklahoman reflect sales in Arcadia, Bethany, Blanchard, Choctaw, Deer Creek, Edmond, Harrah, Luther, Midwest City, Moore, Mustang, Newcastle, Nicoma Park, Norman, Oklahoma City, Piedmont, Tuttle, Warr Acres and Yukon.
MLSOK, covers a wide swath of central Oklahoma plus the Altus area.
In that combined area,the average price slipped 0.7% month to month to $286,147, which was down 0.8% compared with November 2022.
The median price in November in the wider area was $240,000, down 0.8% month to month and flat year over year.
How much homes sold for in the Oklahoma City area in November 2023
Median sale price: November, $263,000, up 1.2% compared with October; up 1.6% from November 2022.
Average sale price: November, $312,793, up 0,6% from October; up 3.7% from November 2022.
Percentage of asking price received: November, 98.7%; down October, 98.9%; the same as in November 2022.
