Is low volatility a sell signal?

Is low volatility a sell signal?

With market volatility at pre-crisis lows, concerns are rising that complacency may herald a selloff, but some analysts believe fundamentals are driving the decline in risk.

"Quite a lot has recently happened in terms of geopolitical risks, oil prices etc. and yet volatility has not budged," Klaus Baader, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Societe Generale (Euronext Paris: GLE-FR), told CNBC. "It's not just equity volatility. It's bond volatility; it's FX volatility. It's all massively low."

But Baader attributes the low volatility to fundamentals, rather than signs of market over exuberance.

"The amount of liquidity that central banks have been providing is taking risk duration out of the market," Baader said, adding that economic data have also shown low volatility, with volatility in U.S. non-farm payrolls data, for example, at the lowest since 1960.

Read More Beware bumpy markets when rates rise: BIS

The low volatility is also consistent with high profit margins and low leverage in the U.S. corporate sector, Societe Generale said in a note last week, adding that high margins imply low fixed costs and reduced earnings volatility.

Baader doesn't expect market volatility will pick up anytime soon.

"Right now, all the central banks are trying to give clear guidance and it's hard to see volatility turning around in a big way," he said.

Others also aren't overly concerned by low market volatility.

"There is little relationship between market volatility and future equity returns over any time horizon," Citigroup said in a note last week. "Current low levels should not be seen as a clear sign of investor complacency and an imminent market correction."

Citigroup also points to the central banks' easy policies, which have sent investors scrambling for yield, as well as lower volatility in corporate earnings.

Read More Low market volatility-a plus or storm ahead?

"Quantitative easing has not just propped up asset prices, it has also helped to stabilize economies and corporate profits," it said. "As long as the eventual withdrawal of quantitative easing coincides with continued fundamental stability, then there may be less of an increase in market volatility than many fear."

Another reason low volatility may not herald a sell off: previously, when the CBOE Volatility Index, or the Vix, traded around current levels, it has presaged good, not bad, market performance, Citigroup (NYSE:C - News) noted.

When the Vix hit current lows in July of 2005, it was followed by U.S. equities rising another 27 percent toward their 2007 peak and in 1993, the Vix also hit current levels and was followed by a 240 percent U.S. stock rise before the 2000 peak, Citigroup noted.