Low Volatility ETFs to Bet on Amid Market Turmoil

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Volatility in the stock market has intensified due to rising inflation fears, uncertainty surrounding future Fed rate cuts and ambiguity over Trump’s tariff policies. This combination of factors has led to a second consecutive weekly decline for the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite. The domestically focused small-cap Russell 2000 index slipped into correction territory, declining 10.4% from its Nov. 25 peak. Meanwhile, Wall Street's fear gauge hit a three-week high on Friday.

Against such a backdrop, investors seeking to remain invested in the equity world could consider low-volatility ETFs. These funds — iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF USMV, Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF SPLV, Invesco S&P 500 High Dividend Low Volatility ETF SPHD, SPDR SSGA US Large Cap Low Volatility Index ETF LGLV and Invesco S&P SmallCap Low Volatility ETF XSLV — could be solid options for investors in the current choppy market.

Low-volatility ETFs have the potential to outpace the broader market in an uncertain environment, providing significant protection to the portfolio. This is because these funds include more stable stocks that have experienced the least price movement in their portfolio. Further, these allocate more to defensive sectors that usually have a higher distribution yield than the broader markets.

Current Market Trends

The bouts of upbeat data have sparked fears of inflation and cast doubt on further interest rate cuts. The latest job report shows that the United States added better-than-expected 256,000 jobs in December and unemployment dropped to 4.1% from 4.2% in November. U.S. manufacturing activity also showed signs of improvement in the final month of 2024. This is especially true as the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its manufacturing PMI increased to 49.3 last month, the highest reading since March, from 48.4 in November. This suggests that production is rebounding and orders are rising, indicating the good health of the economy. 

A recent surge in Treasury yields is also weighing on the stock market as higher yields increase borrowing costs for companies and households. The 10-year yields spiked to the highest level since late 2023. Additionally, uncertainties surrounding President-elect Donald Trump’s potential approach to impose higher tariffs on China and other nations have heightened investor caution, particularly with the Jan. 20 inauguration just days away (read: Inverse Treasury ETFs Rallying on Spike in Yields).

Added to the chaos is the declining consumer sentiment to start the New Year, which signals concern on the inflation front. A University of Michigan survey showed consumer sentiment dropped to 73.2 in January from 74 in December.

With elevated and sticky inflation and rising bond yields, equity investors are starting to become more cautious and are currently seeking low-volatility ETFs.