A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Piaggio & C SpA (BIT:PIA)

Simply Wall St.

Wed, Dec 5, 2018, 5:34 AM

I am going to run you through how I calculated the intrinsic value of Piaggio & C SpA (BIT:PIA) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This is done using the Discounted Cash Flows (DCF) model. Don’t get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model. If you are reading this and its not December 2018 then I highly recommend you check out the latest calculation for Piaggio & C by following the link below.

Check out our latest analysis for Piaggio & C

The calculation

I’m using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company’s growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have perpetual stable growth rate. To start off with we need to estimate the next five years of cash flows. For this I used the consensus of the analysts covering the stock, as you can see below. The sum of these cash flows is then discounted to today’s value.

5-year cash flow forecast

	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
Levered FCF (€, Millions)	€56.53	€60.22	€61.92	€63.68	€65.48
Source	Analyst x3	Analyst x5	Est @ 2.83%	Est @ 2.83%	Est @ 2.83%
Present Value Discounted @ 17.52%	€48.10	€43.60	€38.15	€33.38	€29.21

Present Value of 5-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= €192m

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after the five years. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at an annual growth rate equal to the 10-year government bond rate of 1.8%. We discount this to today’s value at a cost of equity of 17.5%.

Terminal Value (TV) = FCF₂₀₂₂ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €65m × (1 + 1.8%) ÷ (17.5% – 1.8%) = €424m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)⁵ = €424m ÷ ( 1 + 17.5%)⁵ = €189m

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next five years and the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is €381m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. If the stock is an depositary receipt (represents a specified number of shares in a foreign corporation) then we use the equivalent number. This results in an intrinsic value of €1.07. Compared to the current share price of €1.86, the stock is seriously overvalued and so the big question becomes: why is this stock so pricey?

BIT:PIA Intrinsic Value Export December 5th 18

The assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don’t have to agree with my inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. Because we are looking at Piaggio & C as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighed average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation I’ve used 17.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.916. This is derived from the Bottom-Up Beta method based on comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Whilst important, DCF calculation shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. What is the reason for the share price to differ from the intrinsic value? For PIA, I’ve put together three fundamental aspects you should further research:

Financial Health: Does PIA have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
Future Earnings: How does PIA’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of PIA? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St does a DCF calculation for every IT stock every 6 hours, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

To help readers see past the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements.

The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com.

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