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In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas, S.A. (BME:FCC) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. I will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
Levered FCF (€, Millions)
€291.21
€292.66
€413.48
€454.04
€487.30
€514.52
€536.99
€555.87
€572.09
€586.40
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x1
Analyst x5
Analyst x1
Est @ 9.81%
Est @ 7.33%
Est @ 5.59%
Est @ 4.37%
Est @ 3.52%
Est @ 2.92%
Est @ 2.5%
Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 13.67%
€256.18
€226.49
€281.49
€271.92
€256.73
€238.46
€218.94
€199.37
€180.50
€162.76
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= €2.29b
"Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 10-year government bond rate of 1.5%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 13.7%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)10 = €€4.9b ÷ ( 1 + 13.7%)10 = €1.36b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is €3.65b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. This results in an intrinsic value estimate of €9.66. Relative to the current share price of €11.36, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
BME:FCC Intrinsic value, June 7th 2019
Important assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 13.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.485. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Whilst important, DCF calculation shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas, I've put together three additional factors you should further examine:
Future Earnings: How does FCC's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of FCC? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every ES stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.
