In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Dusk Group Limited (ASX:DSK) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
Levered FCF (A$, Millions)
AU$4.70m
AU$4.70m
AU$8.50m
AU$5.83m
AU$4.58m
AU$3.93m
AU$3.56m
AU$3.35m
AU$3.23m
AU$3.17m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Est @ -31.45%
Est @ -21.37%
Est @ -14.31%
Est @ -9.37%
Est @ -5.91%
Est @ -3.49%
Est @ -1.79%
Present Value (A$, Millions) Discounted @ 8.6%
AU$4.3
AU$4.0
AU$6.6
AU$4.2
AU$3.0
AU$2.4
AU$2.0
AU$1.7
AU$1.5
AU$1.4
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = AU$31m
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.6%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= AU$50m÷ ( 1 + 8.6%)10= AU$22m
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is AU$53m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of AU$0.8, the company appears about fair value at a 7.9% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
ASX:DSK Discounted Cash Flow April 30th 2024
The Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Dusk Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.406. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Dusk Group
Strength
Currently debt free.
Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
Dividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market.
Weakness
Earnings declined over the past year.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Australian market.
Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Threat
No apparent threats visible for DSK.
Moving On:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Dusk Group, we've put together three further aspects you should further research:
Future Earnings: How does DSK's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the ASX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
