Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (TSE:AYA) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
Levered FCF ($, Millions)
US$28.7m
US$69.2m
US$61.0m
US$56.5m
US$53.9m
US$52.6m
US$52.0m
US$52.0m
US$52.3m
US$52.9m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x3
Analyst x3
Analyst x1
Est @ -7.44%
Est @ -4.52%
Est @ -2.49%
Est @ -1.06%
Est @ -0.06%
Est @ 0.64%
Est @ 1.13%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.9%
US$26.9
US$60.6
US$50.0
US$43.3
US$38.6
US$35.3
US$32.6
US$30.5
US$28.7
US$27.2
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$374m
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.3%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.9%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$1.2b÷ ( 1 + 6.9%)10= US$602m
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$976m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CA$11.3, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
TSX:AYA Discounted Cash Flow January 22nd 2025
The Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Aya Gold & Silver as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.121. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Aya Gold & Silver
Strength
Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
Debt is well covered by earnings.
Weakness
Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Canadian market.
Threat
Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
Looking Ahead:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Aya Gold & Silver, we've put together three relevant items you should further research:
Risks: You should be aware of the 2 warning signs for Aya Gold & Silver (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) we've uncovered before considering an investment in the company.
Future Earnings: How does AYA's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Canadian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
