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Lonza Group AG (VTX:LONN) missed earnings with its latest half-year results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at CHF3.1b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by 11%, coming in at just CHF5.54 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
See our latest analysis for Lonza Group
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Lonza Group's 19 analysts is for revenues of CHF6.50b in 2023. This would reflect an okay 2.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to descend 10% to CHF13.68 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CHF6.61b and earnings per share (EPS) of CHF14.71 in 2023. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.
The consensus price target held steady at CHF671, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Lonza Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CHF900 and the most bearish at CHF570 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The period to the end of 2023 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 5.9% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 4.9% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry (in aggregate), which analyst estimates suggest will see revenues grow 11% annually. So although Lonza Group is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's forecast to grow slower than the wider industry.