US stocks seesawed throughout Tuesday's trading session but ended the day mixed,as tech helped rescue the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes while JPMorgan (JPM) weighed on the Dow.

The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) reversed earlier losses to finish the day about 0.5% higher. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) did the same, closing up roughly 0.9%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) recovered from steeper losses but still closed down 0.2%, or around 80 points.

The fundamental story for stocks is holding steady more than halfway through the third quarter.

Analysts slashed their earnings expectations for the current quarter by 2.8% during July and August, per FactSet senior earnings analyst John Butters. But that's not as bad as it may seem.

As Butters pointed out in a note on Friday afternoon, analysts typically cut their earnings estimates as the quarter goes on. The current level isn't out of the ordinary. Analysts have slashed expectations by 3% on average for the past 20 years.

DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday morning that these revisions are "not a cause for worry and could be a positive catalyst as we get into Q3 financial reporting season."

After earnings grew 11.3% year over year in the second quarter, they are expected to increase 4.9% year over year in the third quarter, which will kick off in earnest with big banks on Oct. 11. Citi US equity strategist Scott Chronert told Yahoo Finance the setup for the current quarter and beyond is one of "earnings resilience."

While the growth expected in the current quarter isn't considered stellar, Chronert noted that for the first time in six quarters, earnings from the 493 stocks in the S&P 500 not including the Magnificent 7 are growing. This, Chronert argues, supports the broadening out in the market rally over the past two months as stocks outside tech have led the charge.

Additionally, consensus currently expects double-digit earnings growth compared to the year prior throughout 2025.

"The setup should still be for an improving dynamic going into 2025," Chronert said.

On Wednesday, investors will digest one of the most important data points that will shape future Federal Reserve interest rate policy: August's Consumer Price Index (CPI).

The report, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show headline inflation of 2.5%, a deceleration from July's 2.9% headline reading. Over the prior month, consumer prices are expected to have risen 0.2%, matching July's monthly increase.

On a "core" basis, which strips out the more volatile costs of food and gas, prices in August are expected to have risen 3.2% over last year, unchanged from July. Economists also expect monthly core prices to remain unchanged, estimating an uptick of 0.2%, according to Bloomberg data.

Inflation, although moderating, has remained above the Federal Reserve's 2% target on an annual basis. But recent economic data, including a weak labor market, points to an all but certain rate cut by the end of the Fed's next policy meeting on Sept. 18.

"The time has come for policy to adjust," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at the Kansas City Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo. last month.

The question now becomes just how much policy adjusting the Fed will do when it comes to slashing rates. Wednesday's inflation update could help clarify that decision.

"We expect the August CPI report to continue the good news on inflation," Bank of America economists Stephen Juneau and Jeseo Park wrote in a preview ahead of the report. "The data should strengthen the case for a September cut."

As of Tuesday, markets were pricing in a nearly 100% chance the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by the end of its September meeting. However, the odds of a 50 basis point cut or a 25 basis point cut are now split 70/30 after a roughly 60/40 chance placed by traders last week, per the CME FedWatch Tool.

With the first presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump happening on Tuesday, political discussions are in full swing ahead of the November election.

This brings us back to advice Truist co-chief investment officer Keith Lerner first shared back in the spring. The month leading into a presidential election is usually volatile for stocks. As seen in our chart of the day, volatility typically spikes in October of an election year before subsiding after the winner of the race is decided.

When considering other factors that have already made markets choppy over recent months including the ongoing debate about the Fed's interest rate path, Lerner thinks this election season will be no different.

"The weight of the evidence suggests the primary market trend remains higher but to expect continued choppiness as we head into the fall given seasonal trends, a transition in Federal Reserve monetary policy, and as the election takes center stage," Lerner wrote in a note to clients on Sept. 6.

So, history says there's undoubtedly turbulence coming for markets. But typically that shaky part of the flight passes rather quickly. Then, as usual, investors will have other headwinds to consider when that time comes. Lerner argues those concerns will be the ones that matter most for markets.

"Our view is the ability of the Fed to engineer a soft economic landing and the path of inflation and interest rates as well as Artificial Intelligence will have a greater impact on markets than the results of the 2024 election," Lerner wrote.

A contract dispute between Disney (DIS) and DirecTV still has not reached a conclusion after the media giant pulled its owned and operated channels, including ESPN and ABC, off DirecTV last week.

The media blackout has already affected the start of the NFL season, including the first Monday Night Football game, in addition to college football.

Along with ESPN, other Disney Entertainment channels affected include the Disney Channel, Freeform, National Geographic, and local news stations on the ABC network, which is set to host the first presidential debate Tuesday night between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

The crux of the issue? DirecTV doesn't want to carry (and pay for) all of those channels. It wants a "skinnier" bundle, something the media companies themselves have begun to experiment with amid steep declines in linear television viewership as more subscribers cut the cord and opt for streaming services.

"Everybody loses," Needham analyst Laura Martin told Yahoo Finance's Morning Brief on Tuesday. "Content and distribution are complimentary networks. They both win together, and they both lose together. But this is inevitable because Disney keeps wanting to raise prices."

"DirecTV wants to pay less [because] it has negative margins in the cable business. So these kinds of disputes are going to become more and more common."

The dispute is similar to last year's media blackout between Disney and broadband provider Charter Communications (CHTR), which fought to include more of Disney's streaming options into its bundled offerings.

The two sides eventually reached an agreement in which Charter would offer some Disney streaming services — the ad-supported version of Disney+, ESPN+, and ESPN's yet-to-be-launched direct-to-consumer offering — as part of select cable packages at no additional cost to the consumer.

But it's a different set of negotiating chips this time around.

"What makes it different is DirecTV does not have a broadband distribution business that they can somehow align this with," Macquarie analyst Tim Nollen told Yahoo Finance in an interview on Monday. "They're dependent entirely on the pay TV ecosystem, and Disney is playing hardball with them because they can."

In other words, DirecTV, which boasts over 11 million subscribers, can't offer streaming packages as part of its bundles. That makes the satellite cable provider less powerful in its negotiations with Disney.

"Charter could come up with cross-selling options across broadband packages," Nollen explained. "They could put together this combination of linear channels with streaming for their paid TV subscribers, whereas DirecTV is the satellite provider."

"They don't have the same flexibility in terms of how to get the content to consumers across a broadband connection. Without that, I think DirecTV is more limited in what they can offer."

Read more here.

US stocks took a leg lower in afternoon trading as investors await the first presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, along with a looming inflation report.

All three major indexes fell by afternoon trading with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) leading the day's declines, shedding more than 300 points.

In terms of sectors, real estate (XLRE) was an outperformer as growth in US home prices fell below 5% on weak demand.

Energy (XLE) was the biggest laggard, sinking 2% on the heels of more volatile price action for oil. Oil prices fell to their lowest level since 2021 after OPEC lowered its demand growth forecast in 2024 and 2025.

Oil resumed its downward trend on Tuesday, tanking more than 3% after oil alliance OPEC lowered its demand growth forecast for 2024 and 2025.

On Tuesday, West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) slid more than 3% to hover near $66 per barrel, while Brent (BZ=F) also fell to trade below $70 per barrel, its lowest level since December 2021.

In its monthly report, OPEC said it expects oil demand growth in 2024 to increase by about 2.0 million barrels per day, 80,000 barrels less than its prior estimate. The oil alliance also slightly lowered its 2025 growth forecast.

China was one of the main drivers of the downward revision. The country has been facing economic headwinds amid a housing crisis. It has also increasingly turned to natural gas, which is less expensive and considered cleaner than oil, as part of its energy transition.

“Diesel demand was subdued by weak manufacturing, construction, and trucking activity, as well as the penetration of LNG [liquified natural as] trucks, weakening the demand for transportation diesel,” said the report.

Despite OPEC's revision, the oil alliance still has the most bullish outlook compared to other industry estimates.

Crude has been hovering near its lowest level of 2024. In recent weeks futures have erased all of their year-to-date gains.

WTI is down roughly 5% year to date and hovering near its lows for the year. Brent crude is down about 8% during the same period.

Here are some of the stocks moving in early trading on Tuesday:

Oracle (ORCL): Oracle shares surged more than 10% Tuesday after the company reported earnings that beat expectations, thanks to increased demand for its cloud services offerings. Oracle also announced a new partnership with Amazon's AWS (AMZN), further adding to its growing database opportunities.

Apple (AAPL): Shares of the tech giant edged lower, falling about 1% on Tuesday, after it lost an EU court battle over a $14 billion tax bill. The development comes just one day after its iPhone 16 launch disappointed on the AI side, with Wall Street analysts underwhelmed by the phone's new features.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): Shares of the chipmaker dropped 3% despite strong sales for the month of August. The company's revenue rose 33% last month, a positive signal when it comes to the smartphone market's recovery and demand for Nvidia's AI chips.

Markets are on edge ahead of a few key catalysts this week.

But while an update on consumer prices is top of mind for investors, a more immediate event is taking place Tuesday evening: the first presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul has you covered with the top economic topics to watch:

One of former President Donald Trump’s favorite digs these days is to talk about "Comrade Kamala" Harris. It's a constant feature on his social media with his last invocation of the moniker coming early Tuesday morning. It’s a blatantly false nickname that Trump has stuck with in recent weeks as an apparent way to signal his overall charge that Harris is a candidate of the far left who would wreck the economy if she wins.

Harris has, it seems, spent much of the last week preparing to rebut the charge with a series of moves to moderate her economic platform.

Last week, it was a small business plan that included a tenfold increase in tax credits for new entrepreneurs and a split with Biden on long-term capital gains.

Then this week, her website debuted an issues page with the first chapter devoted to her "opportunity economy" plans.

Whether she can make that case and also convince voters of her business bona fides with Trump standing just a few feet away is something that will be closely watched.

Trump may also need to offer new details Tuesday night on his plans for tariffs.

The former president has promised to levy duties of 10% to 20% on US trading partners and higher rates of 60% on China if he is returned to the Oval Office.

That could lead to additional costs of up to $3,900 for a typical family each year, according to an estimate from Brendan Duke of the left-leaning Center for American Progress.

The Peterson Institute for International Economics has also run the numbers and found a somewhat smaller tab, but the Harris campaign has seized on that $3,900 stat to charge again and again in recent weeks that Trump is proposing something akin to a "national sales tax."

It’s a charge that Trump has repeatedly brushed off in recent weeks, but he could be directly confronted with the issue by Harris or the debate moderators — ABC’s David Muir and Linsey Davis.

All told, "we expect tariffs and taxes to feature prominently as topics of discussion," the analysts at Raymond James wrote in a recent preview for clients. But they noted that both candidates could be light on details, with Harris in particular incentivized "to remain light on policy specifics where she can through November."

US stocks opened mixed on Tuesday as investors awaited a crucial consumer inflation report that will help determine the future of Federal Reserve policy.

The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) ticked up roughly 0.4% and 0.7%, respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell about 0.2%.

The moves follow Monday's sharp rebound, which saw the major gauges surge over 1%.

It's 5 a.m. in San Francisco and I am currently prepping for Yahoo Finance's big day two coverage at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia conference. We are coming in hot today with big chats with Robinhood (HOOD) CEO Vlad Tenev and AT&T (T) CEO John Stankey.

But I don't want to forget about day one of the conference just yet! Learned a ton!

Here are a couple of takeaways:

• The gap between AMD (AMD) and Intel (INTC) — in terms of technology and overall investment thesis — is as wide as the ocean. I couldn't be more blown away by the product roadmap outlined by AMD CEO Lisa Su in our chat yesterday (which you can watch here). Also, I couldn't be more impressed with how Su thinks about the business. Despite all the positive headlines written about her over the past decade, she remains deeply engaged and focused on winning at AMD — and that is great for AMD shareholders.

• Speaking of Intel, Goldman Sachs tech analyst Toshiya Hari essentially reiterated his Sell rating on the stock on air with yours truly and Madison Mills (you can watch that here). Talking a little with Hari off-camera, I came away really concerned on the timeline for Intel turning around its business. The stock is hovering near a record low.

• Keep an eye on how big-cap tech stocks such as Nvidia (NVDA) react to the inevitable Fed rate cut next week. Goldman's software analyst Kash Rangan told us investors in tech are waiting for a rate cut to get more bullish on the space again. He did caution the sector has to do a better job monetizing AI for the stocks to really lift off.

• There is a good story in the WSJ today looking at Oracle (ORCL) now being viewed as a friend to the world's biggest cloud computing companies, rather than a rival. I think Madison's exclusive interview with Amazon Web Services CEO Matt Garman at the conference sheds light on this thesis. Garmin goes into how the two are working closer together.