Happy Friday! If you're glued to the market news, there's more over on our US site.

Thanks for reading.

Axel Rudolph, senior technical analyst at online trading platform IG, said:

"US producer prices posted a surprise 0.4% drop, the first decline since October 2023, while consumer confidence sank well below market expectations to its lowest level since June 2022."

Oil prices rose slightly on Friday but are on track for their second weekly loss in a row as trade wars and OPEC+ spikes

Futures for West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) and Brent (BZ=F), the international benchmark, rose over 0.1%. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading at the critical $60 per barrel level, while Brent declined to $63 per barrel.

Key takeaways of a new analysis by Felipe Camargo, lead global economist at Oxford Economics, show:

• The import price rise and import compression by the US are only the start of a negative chain reaction in global trade. As countries export less to the US, they will most certainly also import less from other trading partners as their trade income falls, magnifying the tariff shock.

• Despite the geographical breadth and magnitude of the tariffs, the strengthening of the US dollar has so far been constrained by weaker near-term growth expectations and also prospects of lower interest rates.

• While our baseline simulation shows an 8% reduction in global trade by 2040, the magnitude of the tariff shock is particularly uncertain, depending heavily on the responsiveness of US import demand to prices.

• Empirical estimates suggest the impacts from tariffs are nonlinear and double in magnitude over roughly seven years if tariffs remain in place at the initial rate.

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Yahoo Finance UK's Pedro Goncalves writes:

Tesla (TSLA) shares continued their slide in pre-market trading on Friday, down nearly 2% after a sharp 7.3% decline in the previous session, as UBS lowered its price target on the electric vehicle maker, citing growing concerns over its energy business in China.

UBS analysts cut their target from $225 to $190, warning that the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China — exacerbated by Trump’s tariff hikes — are disrupting Tesla’s supply chain. While Tesla assembles most vehicles in the countries where they are sold, many components and materials still cross borders, making the company vulnerable to retaliatory trade measures.

The bank flagged Tesla’s China-based energy division — one of the few outperformers in its latest earnings report — as a key risk. “The escalating trade war could weigh heavily on this segment,” UBS wrote, noting that its newly revised price target may be lowered further depending on the company’s next quarterly performance.

Adding to investor unease, Tesla’s China operation has reportedly stopped accepting new orders for its two premium models, the Model S and Model X. Both vehicles are manufactured in the US, requiring Chinese buyers to import them — a process now complicated by extended delivery times and increased exposure to tariff fluctuations.

Shipping the Model S and Model X from overseas could take up to eight months for Chinese buyers.

Chinese fast fashion giant Shein has been green lit by London regulators to list on its stock market, Reuters reported this morning, citing two sources familiar with the matter.

The Financial Conduct Authority has given the nod, the sources said, after filing papers with the regulator last June.

It's interesting timing for the company to go public: if this week is anything ti go by, it could be set for choppy waters in an escalating trade dispute between the US and China.

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said:

China has now said it will up its tariff on US imports to 125% — a direct counterpoint to the current levy plans by Trump.

That's up from the 84% announced on Wednesday.

The dollar index (DX-Y.NYB), which tracks the world's reserve asset against a basket of currencies, is 1.1% lower this morning.

Anxieties linked to trade continue to reverberate in currency markets.

Meanwhile, sterling has risen 0.7% against the dollar so far this session, heading towards the $1.31 mark.

Rachel Reeves said:

According to today’s ONS trade data, the total goods and services trade deficit narrowed by £7.5bn to a deficit of £1.0bn in the three months to February 2025, the lowest total trade deficit since the three months to July 2021.

Exports of goods to the United States increased by £500m in February 2025, the third consecutive monthly rise, while imports of goods from the United States increased by £200m.

The value of goods imports increased by £2.8bn (5.9%) in February 2025, reflecting a rise in both EU and non-EU imports, while the value of goods exports remained stable, with minimal change to exports for both EU and non-EU countries.

George Roberts, senior dealer at financial services firm Ebury, said:

Our US team writes:

US stock futures extended some of Thursday's losses before bouncing back as Wall Street gets ready to wrap up another week of tariff-fuelled turmoil.

Futures tied to the S&P 500 (ES=F) were up 1.2%, those on the tech-heavy Nasdaq (NQ=F) popped 1.5%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) climbed 1%

The major stock indexes are reeling from whiplash toward the end of another week roiled by President Trump's fast-moving tariff policy, after pulling off historic gains during Wednesday's session followed by subsequent plunges on Thursday. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) has seen six consecutive sessions of extreme volatility, moving at a range of more than 5% back and forth in each of them.

Thursday's session showed that the initial optimism from Trump's 90-day "pause" on reciprocal tariffs for most trade partners had given way to concern about his escalation with China.

On Thursday, the White House provided Wall Street with another stunner: Tariffs on Chinese imports were actually increased to 145%, not the 125% that Trump had originally suggested when he announced the broad pause.

The UK economy grew by 0.5% in February, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), in a boost for chancellor Rachel Reeves before an expected downturn triggered by Donald Trump’s tariff blitz.

Friday’s monthly GDP figure was above the 0.1% increase forecast by economists polled by Reuters. There was no growth in January, revised up from a previous estimate of a 0.1% contraction.

The 0.5% rise in February came mostly due to growth in the services sector, although all sectors showed growth, the ONS said.

The figures predate Trump’s announcement on 2 April that he would impose steep import tariffs on most countries in the world, including a 10% levy for the UK. The move triggered a sharp fall in global stock markets and prompted fears of a recession on both sides of the Atlantic.

Read more on Yahoo Finance UK

Hello from London. It's Lucy Harley-McKeown here, rounding off a suitably mad week in markets.

This morning we've already had a UK GDP reading and German inflation data (more on that later).

European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde will also speak this morning. And later in the afternoon there's fresh US PPI data.

Let's get to it.