Well that's all from us today, thanks for following along. Be sure to join us again tomorrow, when we'll be back for more of the latest markets news, and all that's happening across the global economy.

Later tonight Nvidia (NVDA) is set to release its fourth quarter results after the market closes, rounding off this season's earnings releases from the Magnificent 7.

The company's earnings are particularly closely watched by markets, as its chips have helped facilitate the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, so its numbers can offer insight into demand for the technology.

It has guided to revenue of $37.5bn (£29.7bn), plus or minus 2%, for the period, which compares to record revenue of $35.1bn in the third quarter.

We'll delve into the results tomorrow morning. Until then...

...have a good evening!

US mortgage rates dropped last week to the lowest level this year. The contract rate on a 30-year mortgage declined 5 basis points to 6.88% in the week ended 21 February, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data released Wednesday.

The MBA survey, which has been conducted weekly since 1990, uses responses from mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The data cover more than 75% of all retail residential mortgage applications in the US.

The government will release January data on new-home sales later Wednesday.

Gold prices were barely moved on Wednedsay afternoon after touching a one-week low in the previous session, as investors are cashing in amid trade war jitters.

The spot price of gold was trading at $2,918 per ounce at the time of writing. The yellow metal reached an all-time high of $2,956 in early trading on Monday and a one-week low of $2,903.50 on Tuesday.

"​While the spot gold price was able to bounce off Tuesday’s lows, there has been fresh selling overnight that might yet turn into a more substantial pullback," said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG.

Gold prices have had a run this year, hitting a series of record highs, but the yellow metal is now facing a phase of profit-taking as investors reassess their positions.

"You are seeing profit-taking as well as people looking to get to the sidelines and to re-establish positions at a lower price," said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remain a key factor for gold's resilience. US president Donald Trump stated on Monday that tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports were "on time and on schedule," despite the two countries stepping up border security measures and efforts to curb the flow of fentanyl into the US ahead of a March 4 deadline.

This uncertainty surrounding tariffs is expected to keep markets on edge.

The fundamentals on offer at Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY.L) are “too good to ignore,” according to Barclays (BARC.L) analysts, who predict the UK bank could return almost half of its market value to shareholders by 2027.

Bloomberg has the details:

Analysts led by Aman Rakkar on Wednesday lifted their price target on the British lender to a level above any other tracked by Bloomberg, propelling Lloyds shares to a seven-year high and making them the best performer in the FTSE 100 Index (^FTSE) since the start of 2025. The new objective of 90 pence implies upside of more than 30% from Tuesday’s close.

According to Rakkar, a sharp step-up in Lloyds’ capital generation should help drive higher shareholder returns. He forecasts the dividend will keep growing and sees buybacks building to £4 billion ($5.1 billion) by 2026. That could see the bank return near to half of its £43 billion market capitalization by 2027, the analyst wrote.

Rakkar also increased earnings per share estimates to about 15% above the broader consensus in the wake of last week’s results, and believes Lloyds can deliver “sector-leading fundamentals,” including around 65% EPS growth by 2027 alone.

Deutsche Bank AG’s Robert Noble is another analyst predicting Lloyds shareholders will receive more cash. He forecasts the capital return per share in 2027 could be almost double what was seen in 2024. Noble raised his price target by 10% to 88p on Wednesday, the second-highest on the Street.

Eli Lilly (LLY) announced on Wednesday that it is ramping up US manufacturing, adding four new sites to help increase the production of key drug ingredients.

Three of the four sites will produce active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), which are key ingredients in drugs.

Lilly didn't announce the locations of the sites but noted that it expects to create 3,000 jobs for highly skilled workers upon completion and nearly 10,000 construction jobs during the buildout.

This marks a total of about $50bn in spending since 2020 on building out new capacity.

"This bold move reflects our commitment to stay ahead of anticipated demand for safe, high-quality, FDA-approved medicines," Eli Lilly CEO Dave Ricks said in a statement on Wednesday.

A pay dispute involving train drivers on London’s Elizabeth line has finally been resolved, meaning all strikes have now been called off.

Members of Aslef were due to stage a series of strikes from Thursday but the union said its executive committee has accepted a new offer from the line’s operator, MTR.

Strikes planned for Thursday and Saturday had already been called off, but Aslef said all industrial action has now been cancelled, including threatened walkouts on 8 and 10 March.

Industrial unrest has persisted in some places on the rail network despite the resolution last summer of the major nationwide disputes that had brought two years of disruption.

You’ve spent months searching through job listings and crafting lengthy, detailed applications. Finally, after five rounds of interviews, a company offers you a role. But you’re feeling disillusioned with the organisation, the pay isn’t great, and the job is becoming less and less attractive. You accept, but you’re so frustrated that you don’t turn up on the first day – a phenomenon known as career catfishing.

It may seem hard to believe, but the scenario above is becoming more common. According to a recent survey of 1,000 workers by CV Genius, defiant job seekers are accepting jobs and refusing to show up, which is costing businesses huge amounts of money. According to the study, 34% of Gen Z jobseekers have done this, as well as 24% of Millennials, 11% of Gen X and 7% of Boomers.

But why would job seekers accept a role and then ghost their future employer? In part, it’s because the recruitment process is so arduous – and people are fed up.

Read the full article here

Investors have been mulling reports that Ukraine and the US have struck a minerals deal to enable Kyiv to pay back billions in military aid supplied by Washington to fight the Russian invasion.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was planning to travel to Washington on Friday to see his US counterpart Donald Trump to sign the agreement.

The Financial Times reported that Kyiv was ready to sign the agreement on jointly developing its mineral resources, including oil and gas, after the US dropped demands for a right to $500bn in potential revenue from the deal.

“I hear that he’s coming on Friday,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Tuesday. “Certainly it’s okay with me, if you’d like to, and he would like to sign it together with me. And I understand that’s a big deal.”

Shares in Tesla (TSLA) slumped 9% last night after EU and UK sales fell by almost half in January.

The drop took the company's valuation back below $1trn for the first time since November 2024.

It comes as the electric car maker has been facing stiff competition in the European market from Chinese and other manufacturers.

Dales across the EU, EFTA and the UK fell more than 45%, and more than 50% in the EU alone.

The pound (GBPUSD=X) traded lower against the dollar in early European trading, at $1.2654, as the greenback bounced back thanks to a recovery in US bond yields.

The US dollar index (DX-Y.NYB), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, recovered as bond yields gained ground after a five-day losing streak.

US Treasury yields have drawn renewed interest from buyers following the advancement of a $4.5 trillion tax cut proposal in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives. The ambitious plan, which includes provisions for funding the deportation of undocumented migrants, tightening border security, deregulating the energy sector, and increasing military spending, is set to inject substantial liquidity into the economy.

While this would probably fuel inflationary pressures, it also places additional pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain its current interest rate levels for an extended period.

As traders adjust to this fiscal outlook, there has been a shift in expectations for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

Weak flash S&P Global PMI data for February, released on Friday, revealed that the US service sector contracted for the first time in more than two years. In response, traders have raised their bets on the Fed adopting a more dovish stance.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in June has surged to 65%, up from 47% just a week ago.

As we cruise into the afternoon, here's a quick look at what's been happening in equity markets this morning.

• Miners were on the front foot as copper prices rose, with Antofagasta (ANTO.L), Glencore (GLEN.L) and Anglo American (AAL.L) among the top performers on the FTSE 100.

• Susannah Streeter said: "The threat of more potential tariffs from Trump is moving markets as investors assess the knock-on effect on goods across the global economy. Not only has the President re-committed to introducing 25% tariffs on imports from Canda and Mexico but he's been scouting for other targets.

• "Copper prices have shot up, as the metal is caught in the President's sights. Mining stocks have helped drive the FTSE 100 higher in early trade after copper futures jumped around 4%, sparked by the President ordering an investigation into extra duties on imports. The plan would be to spark higher US production and put a dent in China's huge share of the global market. Copper is sought after as a key component in renewable energy systems, for wind, solar power and electric vehicles for example, and prices have been steadily rising this year, after dipping back at the end of 2024."

• Medical products company Convatec (CTEC.L) was the standout gainer on the top-flight index, however, as it posted a jump in full-year profit and revenue and said it expects FY25 "to be another year of strong strategic progress".

• Construction and regeneration group Morgan Sindall (MGNS.L) rose as it reported a record full-year performance, hailing a "significant" contribution from the Fit Out division.

• Aston Martin (AML.L) was also in the black as it announced plans to axe around 5% of its global workforce in a bid to cut costs, and reported a widening of its annual losses.

• On the downside, Hikma Pharmaceuticals (HIK.L) tumbled even as it posted a rise in full-year profits and revenue.

A survey by consumer group Which? found that British Airways (IAG.L) is the worst UK carrier for long-haul flights, while Ryanair (RYA.IR) and Wizz Air (WIZZ.L) came last for shorter flights.

The annual survey conducted by the consumer body assessed passenger experiences over the past year, gathering feedback from more than 9,000 flights. British Airways finished at the bottom of the long-haul rankings, sharing the position with Air Canada (AC.TO), and placed 12th out of 16 airlines in the short-haul category. In the latter category, Ryanair was rated the lowest.

Jet2 (JET2.L) was the best-performing short-haul airline with a customer score of 80%, while the bottom five airlines in that category each scored below 60%.

In the long-haul segment, Singapore Airlines topped the list with a score of 81%, while BA and Air Canada lagged at 62%.

Rory Boland, editor of Which? Travel, said:

Read the full article here

Mortgage approvals could hit their highest annual total since 2021 this year, with estimates that the market could see a 13.4% increase due improving market sentiment, driven by wider economic stability and greater mortgage affordability.

Analysis shows that: -

• 2024 was a year of far greater stability for the UK property market, particularly with respect to the level of buyer activity seen across the market.

• In total, there were some 754,983 mortgages approved for potential buyers, marking a 30.8% increase on the market lull seen the previous year in 2023 when just 577,173 mortgages were approved.

• While 2023’s total of 577,173 was the lowest annual total seen since 2010, the 754,983 approvals seen throughout 2024 was the highest annual total since 2021, when the pandemic property market boom was in full swing, driven by the original stamp duty holiday.

• Despite the fact that 2025 is set to see current stamp duty thresholds revert back to their previous levels, the forecast by Alexander Hall anticipates that it will be another year of growth for the mortgage sector.

• The firm estimates that we could see 856,346 mortgage approvals take place over the course of the year, a 13.4% increase on 2024.

Meta Platforms (META) is in discussions to construct a new data centre campus for its artificial intelligence projects, with potential costs exceeding $200bn, The Information reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter.

Reuters has the details:

Meta executives have informed data centre developers that the company is considering building the campus in states including Louisiana, Wyoming or Texas, with senior leaders having visited potential sites this month, the report said.

Since the launch of Microsoft (MSFT)-backed OpenAI's ChatGPT in 2022, investment in AI has surged as companies across various sectors strive to incorporate artificial intelligence into their products and services.

A Meta spokesperson denied the report, saying its data centre plans and capital expenditures have already been disclosed and that anything beyond that is "pure speculation".

Last month, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg said the company plans to spend as much as $65 billion this year to expand its AI infrastructure.

Consumer confidence in Germany unexpectedly worsened amid a weak labour market.

The GfK index dropped to -24.7 in February, down from -22.6 in January, the lowest level since April.

Meanwhile in France, consumer confidence improved this month, with people becoming more optimistic about the job situation.

The consumer confidence index edged up to 93 points in February from 92 points in January.

Justin Low, currency analyst at Forex live, said:

Traders will be focused on a strategy reset at BP (BP.L) later, with the oil giant due to begin a capital markets presentation at 1pm.

Richard Hunter, head of markets at Interactive Investor, said:

BP's profit after tax tumbled to $381m last year from $15.2bn in 2023 in the face of higher costs and weaker oil and gas prices. Total revenue dropped nine percent to $195bn.

BP shares have fallen 6.5% in the past year, whereas rival Shell (SHEL.L) is 7% higher.

Ahead of the investor day, it has widely been reported that US activist investor Elliott Investment Management has built a significant stake in BP.

The fund is known for forcing through corporate changes within groups it invests in, signalling further upheaval ahead for BP, analysts said.

Heathrow airport has declared its first dividend since before the COVID-19 pandemic after passenger traffic soared back to record levels last year.

It is set to hand £250m to its shareholders “as a result of strong 2024 business performance” — its first dividend in five years.

Last year 84 million people travelled through Europe’s busiest airport, beating the pre-pandemic record set in 2019 by 3 million. Heathrow also recorded a 10% increase in cargo.

The airport’s underlying profits rose by 31% to £917m last year while revenues dipped by 3.5% to £3.6bn after the regulator limited charges.

The average UK house price could surpass the £300,000 threshold this year, as market sentiment is buoyed further by an increasing number of buyers returning to the sector.

This is what the latest forecast by West One Loans, a leading provider of property finance and specialist mortgages, revealed:

• The firm’s analysis of current and historic government data, adjusted to account for seasonal market fluctuations throughout the year, estimates that the average UK house price could climb by 3.5% to 3.9% over the course of 2025.

• The overarching opinion from the industry is that 2025 is set to be a year for greater positivity when it comes to house prices.

• The average UK house price could tip the £300,000 threshold to hit £303,913.

Aston Martin (AML.L) reported a wider annual loss of £289.1m but said it expects a significant improvement in its financial performance this year.

Revenues fell 3% to £1.58bn after volumes slid 9% to 6,030, dragged down by supply disruption and economic weakness in China.

Volumes improved in the fourth quarter as the launch of new models helped to lift the figure by 8% to 2,391 vehicles.

Its average selling price for the year hit £245,000, a 6% rise, thanks to its Valkyrie, Valour and Valiant specials.

Chief executive Adrian Hallmark said:

It comes as the British sportscar maker has delayed its first battery electric vehicle further, as it announced plans to cut 170 jobs in the latest step in its quest for profits. This is equivalent to 5% of its workforce.

The venture capital funding landscape in India has shown strong year-on-year growth in January, with deal volume rising 40.9% from 93 in 2024 to 131. Deal value surged by 69.7%, up from $520.5m to $883.2m, GlobalData revealed.

Aurojyoti Bose, lead analyst at GlobalData, said:

Some of the notable VC funding deals announced in India last month include around $121m fundraising by Infra.Market, $109.4 million of funding in Neuberg Diagnostics, and $60m in fundraising by Leap Finance.

The data showed that India accounted for 9.9% share of the total number of VC deals announced globally while its share in terms of value stood at 3.6%.