Oil prices dipped and then recovered on Thursday as investors processed a surprise increase in US gasoline inventories from the previous session.

Brent crude futures (BZ=F) lost 0.3%, trading at $72.62 per barrel in early trade before heading 0.6% up, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) (CL=F) slipped 0.5% to $68.35 per barrel.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that gasoline stocks rose by 3.3 million barrels to 212.2 million barrels in the week ending 24 November, defying analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll, which had forecast a draw of 46,000 barrels.

Matt Smith, analyst at Kpler, expressed surprise at the significant build-up in gasoline inventories, particularly given the expected surge in travel for Thanksgiving. "It is surprising to see gasoline inventories building so much and implied demand not really budging week-on-week," he said.

Meanwhile, oil traders are eyeing Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting, where the group is expected to announce an extension of its production cuts. However, many analysts believe this is already priced into the market, so any price movement after the meeting is likely to be minimal.

"The only question is whether it's a one-month pushback, or three-month, or even longer. That would give the oil market some direction," said Suvro Sarkar, an analyst at DBS Bank in Singapore. "On the other hand, we would be worried about a dip in oil prices if the deferments don’t come."

Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, noted: "Crude may have already baked in a small deferral in OPEC+ tapering." A decision to proceed with a boost in production from January 1 or an indefinite postponement would likely surprise traders, she added.

Unite is pushing ahead with legal action to overturn cuts to the winter fuel payment for millions of pensioners. The union claims that ministers did not follow correct procedure in their decision to restrict the payments to poorer pensioners.

Sharon Graham, Unite's general secretary, told the BBC "picking the pockets of pensioners is wrong at every level".

The government said it cannot comment on the legal action, but it was committed to supporting pensioners.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has said the policy, announced in July, is necessary to repair a "hole" in the public finances left by the previous government.

Winter fuel payment is a lump-sum amount of £200 a year for pensioners under 80, increasing to £300 for over 80s, paid in November or December.

From this winter, it will be restricted to those who qualify for pension credit and other means-tested help, meaning an estimated 10 million pensioners will no longer be eligible to receive it.

Let's take a look at what's been happening in equity markets so far today.

• Direct Line (DLG.L) surged more than 35% after it said late on Wednesday that it had rejected a £3.3bn takeover proposal from Aviva.

• Aviva (AV.L) offered 112.5p per share in cash and 0.282 new Aviva share, valuing the group at 250p per share. This is a 59.7% premium to the closing Direct Line share price on 18 November, which was the day before the proposal was submitted.

• Direct Line dismissed the offer as "highly opportunistic", saying that it "substantially undervalued the company".

• Admiral (ADM.L) gained 3.4%, while Aviva was the worst performer on the top-flight index.

• Spirax-Sarco (SPX.L) shot to the top of the FTSE 100 (^FTSE) after an upgrade to 'outperform' at BNP Paribas Exane and an initiation at 'buy' at Citi, which also started Smiths Group at 'buy' and Halma at 'neutral'.

• Sainsbury's (SBRY.L) and Tesco (TSCO.L) were also high risers after double upgrades at JPMorgan Cazenove to 'overweight' from 'underweight'.

• Troubled footwear maker Dr Martens (DOCS.L) rallied as it said it swung to a loss for the half year but that trading since the start of the autumn/winter season had been "encouraging", and held guidance for the 2025 fiscal year. Pre-tax losses came in at £28.7m for the six months to September, compared with a £25.8m profit a year earlier. Revenue fell 18% to £324.6m.

• On the downside, Imperial Brands (IMB.L), United Utilities (UU.L), Severn Trent (SVT.L), Land Securities (LAND.L), 3i Group (III.L) and Ithaca Energy (ITH.L) all lost ground as they traded without entitlement to the dividend.

• Tullow Oil (TLW.L) fell sharply as it said it was on track to meet full-year production guidance but that free cash flow would be below previous guidance due to timing of payments.

• Energean (ENOG.L) was also in the red even as it hailed "strong" third-quarter trading, with improved earnings and a jump in production, but also said full-year total production from continuing operations would be below previous guidance.

• Food producer Cranswick (CWK.L) was hit by downgrade to 'sector perform' from 'outperform' at RBC Capital Markets.

The property market has picked up momentum as buyers look to beat the April deadline when stamp duty will rise, according to property site Rightmove (RMV.L).

There are signs that first-time buyers in areas of England affected by stamp duty changes are trying to get ahead of the curve. Before the autumn budget, first-time buyer demand in London was 28% ahead of last year. Now it is 31% ahead, Rightmove figures show.

In the east of England, the trend has moved from 28%, to 32% ahead of the same period last year since the budget. In the south-east, first-time buyer demand has ticked up from 23% ahead of last year pre-budget, to 24% ahead post-budget.

In London, only 8% of homes for sale will be stamp-duty free for first-time buyers from April. It’s 24% in the south-east, and 32% in the east of England.

From April 2025, stamp duty rates will revert to previous levels, with the “nil rate” band for first-time buyers reducing from £425,000 to £300,000. Stamp duty applies in England and Northern Ireland.

The property market has picked up momentum as buyers look to beat the April deadline when stamp duty will rise, according to property site Rightmove (RMV.L).

Read the full article here

Higher interest rates in recent years has meant that the average wealth gap between households in their 30s and 60s has fallen by more than £86,000 over the past five years. But it is still nearly £330,000, according to research from the Resolution Foundation.

The think tank said that wealth gaps between younger and older households had widened in the decade running up to the pandemic but rising interest rates had put this into reverse.

The Resolution Foundation's research showed that while the typical gap in wealth had fallen by £86,419 in real terms from £416,354 — and was the smallest in more than a decade — it was still £329,934.

Its "Inequality Control" report, published on Thursday, showed that between 1980 and 2019, UK household's enjoyed an "unprecedented wealth boom". This saw household wealth rise from three to seven times national income in 2019.

And while it noted that other advanced economies also experienced wealth booms over this period of lower interest rates, the UK — unlike the US — did not see a corresponding rise in wealth inequality.

The share of wealth in Britain owned by the wealthiest 1% of households only rose by one percentage point to 21%, over the course of this wealth boom. By comparison, the top 1% in the US saw their share of wealth climb 12 percentage points to 35% in this period.

However, the research found that Britain's wealth boom has started to unwind since the Bank of England (BoE) started to raise interest rates in response to a spike in inflation.

Hospitality group Loungers has agreed to be acquired by Fortress Investment Group in a deal which values it at about £340m.

The Telegraph has the details:

Fortress, which has previously invested in firms including Majestic Wines and Peach Pubs & Co, offered 310p for each Loungers share.

This represents a premium of about 30% to its closing price on Wednesday.

Domnall Tait, the managing director of Fortress, said Loungers has a “strong and differentiated position” having grown its locations and sales in recent years “in spite of the recent challenges faced by the wider hospitality sector”.

Loungers, which operates the Lounge, Cosy Club and Brightside brands, opened its first site in Bristol in 2002.

Spain recorded a slightly stronger-than-expected rebound in headline inflation in November, from 1.8% to 2.4%, driven by electricity prices base effects.

It was the fastest rate since August, official figures from national statistics office INE showed.

Inflation had slowed to 1.5% in September after reaching 2.3% in August.

Spanish inflation hit 10.8% in July 2022, its highest level since 1985 as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent consumer prices soaring.

It comes as Spain is the first country to report CPI data ahead of tomorrow's euro HICP report.

European Central Bank (ECB) vice president Luis de Guindos, a former Spanish economy minister, said last month that inflation was on the “right track” in Spain and the rest of the eurozone.

But he warned during a speech in Madrid that “the outlook, however, is surrounded by substantial risks”.

He said:

Lettings and sales estate agent Foxtons, has revealed its new homes and investments team has seen a significant increase in market activity on an annual basis.

• It said that both the total volume and value of new-build sales climbed significantly in the third quarter of this year.

• The data showed that the volume of new homes transactions to have exchanged during the period increased by 66.7% compared to the same three months last year.

• The total value of new homes exchanged was some 64.8% higher.

• Meanwhile, data from TwentyEA highlighted the dominance within the London market. In Q3, Foxtons held 12.5% of total market share with respect to new instructions across the capital’s new-build market, with its closest competitor holding just 3.2% of total market share.

• When it comes to exchanges, the new homes and investments team at Foxtons accounts for 10.1% of market share across the London market, with their nearest competitor again some way off the pace set by Foxtons at 4.4%.

Christine Lagarde has urged European leaders to buy more American goods to avoid a blow to the global economy. It comes as Donald Trump threatens to impose tariffs on American trading partners.

The European Central Bank (ECB) president said the EU needed “not to retaliate, but to negotiate” with the president-elect, who is set to impose 25% levies on Mexican and Canadian goods on his first day in office.

European markets have slumped in the wake of Trump’s tariff warnings amid fears he will impose similar measures on the EU.

Lagarde told the FT that a global trade war was “in nobody’s interest” and would lead to “a global reduction of GDP”.

Direct Line (DLG.L) shares soared more than 39% in London today, following news that Aviva (AV.L) has swooped in with a takeover approach.

After rejecting the bid last night, Direct Line shares are the top riser on the FTSE 250 (^FTMC) index, rising above 221p, but still siting below the indicative bid price of 250p.

Meanwhile, Aviva shares fell at the open, making the UK’s largest insurer one of the biggest losers on the FTSE 100 (^FTSE) index this morning. Rival insurer Admiral (ADM.L) is the biggest riser on the FTSE 100, up by 3%.

Aviva offered to pay 112.5p in cash plus 0.282 new Aviva shares for every Direct Line share, making the offer worth 250p a share, based on Aviva’s share price at 488p a share on 18 November, the day before it made the takeover approach.

Direct Line rejected the indicative offer as “opportunistic,” but some analysts disagree.

Panmure Gordon analyst Abid Hussain said:

The number of cars produced in the UK has fallen for the eighth consecutive month, according to new figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).

Some 670,346 units were made between January and October 2024, 10.8% lower than during the same period in 2023.

SMMT said that UK factories produced 15.3% fewer cars in October this year than the same month last year due to a fall in exports. Car output for home and export markets declined 4.7% and 17.6% respectively.

It added that the current market for new cars was weak in the UK and European Union, with the EU market rising by just 0.7% between January and October this year.

The number of cars produced for domestic use rose 5.3% but fell 14.8% for exports in the first 10 months of 2024 versus last year. This was equivalent to 89,095 fewer cars being shipped overseas.

Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive, said:

Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky is close to finalising a deal for Royal Mail, which could be confirmed in the next two weeks.

According to the BBC, who quoted sources close to the deal, EP Group has agreed to make extra concessions in order to clinch the takeover.

Unions have been meeting with Kretinsky’s advisors this week, and while some sources say they remain "wary" of him, the Communication Workers Union (CWU) said meetings with the EP Group have been "constructive".

The deal will still have to be approved under the National Security and Investment Act although officials carried out a similar review when he increased his stake in the company.

A spokesperson for the CWU said its meetings so far with the EP Group have been "honest and constructive and are set to continue in the coming days."

The board of Royal Mail owner, International Distribution Services (IDS), has recommended the £3.6bn offer price to its shareholders and it is expected sufficient numbers of them will accept, allowing the deal to go ahead.

UK consumer confidence remained weak after Rachel Reeves' first Labour budget in 14 years last month, it has been revealed.

According to the British Retail Consortium’s (BRC) latest survey, more Brits are worrying about the state of the economy than before the budget. A measure of consumer expectations for the next three months worsened to -19 in November, from -17 in October.

Meanwhile, expectations for their own personal financial situation improved slightly to -3 this month from -4.

Personal retail spending expectations also got better ahead of Christmas, to +3 from +2, while personal spending overall remained at +17, and personal saving stayed at -9.

Helen Dickinson, the BRC’s chief executive, said:

Shares were mixed in Asia overnight after stocks on Wall Street retreated amid losses for technology shares.

The Nikkei (^N225) rose 0.6% on the day in Japan, while the Hang Seng (^HSI) fell 1.2% in Hong Kong. The Shanghai Composite (000001.SS) was 0.4% down by the end of the session.

Chinese shares fell as investors sold to lock in profits from recent gains.

South Korea’s Kospi (^KS11) was little changed at 2,504.67 after the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to relieve pressure on the economy.

The Bank of Korea cut its key rate by a quarter percentage point to 3% and lowered its outlook for the country’s economic growth from to 2.2%, from 2.4%, for this year and to 1.9% from 2.1% for 2025.

On Wall Street on Wednesday, the Dow Jones (^DJI) fell 0.3% to 44,722.06, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 0.4% to 5,998.74, and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell 0.6% to 19,060.48.

In Treasuries, the yield on benchmark US 10-year notes fell to 4.248% from 4.302% late on Tuesday.

US markets will be closed today for Thanksgiving, and will reopen for a half day on Friday.

Good morning, and welcome back to our markets live blog. As usual we will be taking a deep dive into what's moving markets, and happening across the global economy.

Here's a quick look at what's on the agenda for today:

• 7am: Trading updates: Pennon, Falcon Oil

• 9am: European Central Bank general council meeting

• 9am: Spain inflation for November

• 11am: Eurozone consumer confidence final for November

• 2pm: Germany inflation for November