That's it from me today. Head over to our US site for more market moving news.

A new post by the president on Truth Social reads:

The White House is now denying media reports of a 90-day tariff delay which caused a brief jolt upwards for US stocks:

The market is now incredibly sensitive to any potential change in course the aministration might announce.

Case in point:

Trump's latest post on his social media network Truth Social reads:

I guess that settles it...

On to market open.

Laith Khalaf, head of investment analysis at AJ Bell, said:

British Airways owner International Consolidated Airlines Group (IAG.L) was the biggest faller on the FTSE 100 (^FTSE) on Monday, with its shares down 8% amid concerns of a tariff-fuelled recession.

In a note on Thursday, Barclays (BARC.L) analysts said: "We see European tourism to the US weakening in the face of political differences between Europe and the US. At the risk of stating the obvious, the tariff announcements seem likely to accelerate all these factors.

"The North Atlantic is crucial to the economics of the European flag carriers and we see simultaneous threats to corporate, premium leisure and leisure travel originating at each end of the route."

The analysts had an underweight rating on major European flag carriers, including IAG (IAG.L), as well as Air France-KLM (AF.PA) and Lufthansa (LHA.DE).

Read more on Yahoo Finance UK

Long-time Tesla (TSLA) bull Dan Ives, senior equity research analyst at Wedbush Securities, has slashed his price target on the stock by 43%, citing the impact of CEO Elon Musk's political activities and Donald Trump's trade policies.

"Tesla (TSLA) has essentially become a political symbol globally," Ives said in a report on Sunday, according to a Bloomberg report. "It is time for Musk to step up, read the room, and be a leader in this time of uncertainty."

Ives lowered his price target on Tesla (TSLA) shares to $315 from $550, which was the second-highest among analysts tracked by Bloomberg.

Shares in the electric vehicle (EV) maker were down as much as 7% in pre-market trading on Monday. Tesla's (TSLA) share price is down nearly 41% year-to-date, as a backlash against Musk has grown over his political interventions, heading up Trump's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and overseeing cuts to government agencies.

Futures contracts for the S&P 500 show that it is on course for a decline of more than 20% from its all-time highs when markets open later on, technically confirming a bear market for the index.

As of 10.30am in London futures are more than 4% lower.

An update ahead of Shell's (SHEL.L) quarterly results presented a mixed picture. Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said:

Prime minister Keir Starmer has said he wants British manufacturers to be at the “forefront” of the electric vehicle “revolution”, as he confirmed a raft of new reforms to boost manufacturers in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

Under new measures to be announced on Monday, rules around fines for manufacturers who do not sell enough electric cars will be relaxed, and supercar firms will be exempt.

Companies are grappling with the new rules from the White House, which mean a 25% tariff is now applied to foreign cars imported into the US, while other products face a 10% levy.

Jaguar Land Rover said over the weekend that they would “pause” shipments to the US, as they look to “address the new trading terms”.

As part of his announcement in the West Midlands, Starmer will reinstate the 2030 ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars.

But regulations around manufacturing targets on electric cars and vans will also be altered, to help firms in the transition, and new hybrids will be on the market for another five years.

Yahoo Finance UK's Pedro Goncalves writes:

Oil prices extended last week's losses on Monday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) falling more than 4%, as escalating trade tensions between the United States and China stoked fears of a recession that would reduce demand for crude.

Brent crude prices dropped 3.4% in Monday’s session to $63.04 a barrel at the time of writing. US WTI) crude lost 4.5% to $59.19 a barrel.

Oil prices plummeted 7% on Friday after China increased tariffs on US goods, deepening the trade war and leading investors to price in a higher likelihood of a global recession. Last week, Brent lost 10.9%, while WTI dropped 10.6%.

"It's hard to see a floor for crude unless the panic in the markets subsides and it's hard to see that happening unless Trump says something to arrest snowballing fears over a global trade war and recession," Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights, told Reuters.

ING commodity analysts also underscored the OPEC+ decision on output as a significant factor behind the recent drop in oil prices. They attributed the decision to three key factors: US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran, US pressure on Saudi Arabia to reduce oil prices, and a desire to punish overproducing nations like Iraq and Kazakhstan.

ING has now revised its oil price forecast for the year, expecting Brent crude to average $72 per barrel in 2025, down from an earlier estimate of $74 per barrel.

Warren Patterson, head of commodity strategy at ING, said: “For now, our balance continues to show a modest deficit over 2Q25 and 3Q25, supporting our view that prices over this period should move modestly higher from current levels. However, this can change quickly, depending on OPEC+ policy and demand developments.”

As market selling continues, US investment management platform Vanguard's services appear to have gone down. There are now around 300 reports of an outage on Down Detector.

“We are aware that Vanguard clients may be experiencing delays in viewing certain account information. Our tech teams are taking steps to identify the root cause and mitigate any impact," a Vanguard spokesperson said. :We apologize for any inconvenience as we work to resolve this issue.”

[Post updated at 10.40am to include comment]

The Financial Conduct Authority said this morning it is proposing reforms to its regime for alternative asset managers, to make it easier for firms to enter the market, grow, compete and innovate.

The regulator said that asset managers are "crucial for the financial well-being of millions" and play a key role in capital formation for the UK economy.

UK asset managers manage £12.3tn in mainstream assets and £2tn in alternative assets. Private markets have tripled in size over the past decade.

Much of the UK’s asset management regulation is derived from EU legislation, including the alternative investment fund managers directive (AIFMD). The government is consulting on bringing into effect provisions that repeal AIFMD’s firm-facing legislative requirements.

Where appropriate, the FCA will replace those legal provisions in its rules. It is also considering changes to its existing AIFMD rules, it said.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, dipped with equities on Monday morning, declining 0.6% in early trade.

Meanwhile, sterling pulled slightly lower, just below the $1.29 mark.

Crypto has taken another step lower this morning, with bitcoin's (BTC-USD) price almost down to $75,000. The largest digital asset is now down nearly 20% this year.

The moves lower reflect attitudes to risk in the rest of the market.

Citi head of US equity strategy Stuart Kaiser wrote in a note to clients on Sunday he sees "ample space to the downside" for stocks.

Kaiser said worst case scenario tariff outcomes still haven't been priced into earnings estimates — or stock valuations. Similarly, should the economy truly be set to slow to the recessionary levels some fear, the stock market hasn't properly priced in that outcome yet either, Kaiser said.

"We remain very cautious," Kaiser wrote in a note to clients on Sunday. "Progress on valuation, positioning and risk pricing is not enough as EPS and growth forecasts are well-above the potential tariff impact. Scenarios of [the S&P 500] in the mid-4000s are not unreasonable."

In a note to clients on Friday, JPMorgan became the first major Wall Street bank to forecast Trump's tariffs would indeed tip the economy into a recession later in 2025.

Citi's Kaiser noted that if the economy were entering a recession, the S&P 500 would likely have further to fall.

During recessions since 1948, the median S&P 500 pullback has been 22.1%, per Kaiser's research. A 22.1% drawdown would bring the S&P 500 down below 4,800, or about where futures pointed to the index opening on Monday morning.

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