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FTSE 100 LIVE: European stocks fall as UK consumer confidence weakens ahead of budget

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The FTSE 100 (^FTSE) and European stocks lost ground on Friday as consumer confidence in the UK declined again in October, taking the score back down to the level last seen in March this year.

According to the latest figures from GfK on Friday, the overall index score slipped one point to -21 this month. Three measures declined and two rose compared with September’s announcement, it said.

Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at GfK, said: "As the budget statement looms, consumers are in a despondent mood despite a fall in the headline rate of inflation. This month’s consumer confidence barometer paints a picture of people holding their breath to see what’s in store for them on 30 October.”

  • London’s benchmark index was 0.2% lower in early trade.

  • Germany's DAX (^GDAXI) also slipped 0.2% and the CAC (^FCHI) in Paris headed 0.4% into the red.

  • The pan-European STOXX 600 (^STOXX) was down 0.3%.

  • Wall Street is set to open slightly higher, albeit muted, as S&P 500 futures (ES=F), Dow futures (YM=F) and Nasdaq futures (NQ=F) were in the green.

  • The pound was flat against the US dollar (GBPUSD=X) at 1.2974.

Follow along for live updates throughout the day:

LIVE 8 updates
  • Indian start-ups see over 50% rise in VC funding

    A total of 883 venture capital (VC) funding deals with total disclosed funding value of $8.3bn were announced in India during January to September.

    This marks a year-on-year improvement of 7.3% in deal volume, while the growth in funding value stood massively high at 50.4%, according to GlobalData.

    The report revealed that India witnessed announcement of a total of 823 VC deals during Q1-Q3 2023 whereas the total disclosed funding value of these deals stood at $5.5bn.

    Aurojyoti Bose, lead analyst at GlobalData, said:

  • Oil prices rise amid possible new Middle East ceasefire talks

    Crude oil prices nudged higher on Friday, setting up Brent crude (BZ=F) and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) (CL=F) for a weekly gain of over 1% amid renewed tensions in the Middle East and the prospect of resumed ceasefire talks in Gaza.

    Brent crude futures rose by 0.3%, trading at $74.62 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 0.4%, reaching $70.49 per barrel during early European trading.

    "We maintain our view that crude oil’s fair value is around $70 per barrel, where WTI is currently hovering, as we await new price catalysts," said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore. He added that key factors include upcoming deliberations by China’s National People’s Congress Standing Committee, as well as any response from Israel following Iran’s missile attack on 1 October.

    Market sentiment remains sensitive to possible disruptions; any retaliation from Israel could target Iran’s military assets, but current reports suggest that Iranian nuclear and oil infrastructure would likely remain untouched.

  • Thames Water secures £3bn loan

    Thames Water has secured a loan of up to £3bn, giving the beleaguered firm a lifeline until October 2025.

    People close to the deal told the BBC that an agreement was signed on Thursday evening to secure the company's future.

    Thames Water's mounting debts, worth around £16bn, have led to speculation it could be taken over by the government.

    Currently one in four people in the UK rely on Thames for their supply and its customers are facing a steep rise in bills.

    The BBC reported that there are up to six parties interested in taking a stake in Thames Water.

    Chris Weston, chief executive of Thames, said that the new loan has put the firm "onto a more stable financial footing as we seek a long-term solution to our financial resilience".

  • NatWest profits surge by 25% in third quarter

    NatWest (NWG.L) reported a 25% increase in profits to £1.67bn ($2.16bn) in the three months to September and upgraded its outlook, buoyed by increased lending and a focus on operational efficiency.

    The taxpayer-supported bank revised its income outlook to £14.4bn, up from £14bn, and increased its return on tangible equity target from 14% to 15%.

    Operating profits surged to £1.6bn for the quarter, reflecting a 25.7% increase year-on-year and surpassing analyst predictions, which had anticipated profits of less than £1.5bn.

    This was driven by net interest income — the difference what banks earns on loans and pays out on customer deposits and a key profit driver for retail banks — which came in at a better-than-expected £2.90bn.

    Net income reached £1.2bn, significantly exceeding forecasts that estimated it would fall below £1bn. Other operating expenses declined by £144m compared to the second quarter.

    Read the full article here

  • Mercedes car earnings fall as China shuns luxury

    Mercedes-Benz (MBG.DE) has revealed that third-quarter earnings in the core car division plunged by 64%, warning that Chinese consumers are extremely cautious about making big purchases.

    The figures massively missed analysts' estimates, with earnings hit by model revamp costs as well as a tough market (especially for new versions of the G-Class SUV, which will roll out in the next quarter).

    "The Q3 results do not meet our ambitions," Harald Wilhelm, chief executive officer, said in a statement. He added that the group will step up cost cuts.

    The group now sees annual car sales slightly below the previous year, and fourth-quarter sales in line with the third quarter.

    Adjusted earnings before interest and taxes in the car unit dropped to €1.2bn compared to LSEG's mean estimate of a 3.6% drop to €3.19bn.

  • UK consumer confidence slips ahead of autumn budget

    Consumer confidence in the UK declined again in October, taking the score back down to the level last seen in March this year.

    According to the latest figures from GfK on Friday, the overall index score slipped one point to -21 this month. Three measures declined and two rose compared with September’s announcement, it said.

    The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last year was down one point at -10; but came in nine points better than October 2023, while the forecast for personal finances over the year was up one point at -2, six points higher than this time last year.

    The report also revealed that the measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last year was down five points at -42; some 12 points higher than in October 2023.

    Meanwhile, expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months declined on point at -28; this was four points better than a year ago.

    The major purchase index rose two points to -21 (13 points higher) while the savings index rose four points to +27; this was two points higher than October last year.

    With the autumn budget just a few days away, these figures are likely to be particularly scrutinised by analysts.

    Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at GfK, said:

  • Asia and US stocks

    Stocks in Asia were mostly higher overnight, aside from in Japan, where investors were awaiting the outcome of an election on Sunday.

    The Nikkei (^N225) slipped 0.6% on the day in Japan, while the Hang Seng (^HSI) rose 0.5% in Hong Kong and the Shanghai Composite (000001.SS) was 0.4% up by the end of the session.

    Japanese prime minister Shigeru Ishiba, who took office just weeks ago, called the snap general election to drum up support as the ruling Liberal Democrats grapple with a political funding scandal.

    Recent upheavals have added to uncertainty for markets, complicating the Bank of Japan’s efforts to shift away from long-standing near-zero interest rates.

    Core inflation in Japan’s capital came in at 1.8% in October, lower than the central bank’s 2% target for the first time in five months. This reinforced expectations that the central bank will keep its key interest rate unchanged at a policy meeting next week.

    Meanwhile, China’s central bank kept its medium-term lending rate unchanged at 2%. It also issued 700 billion yuan (£75.8bn) in one-year medium-term lending facility loans to financial institutions, according to the bank’s statement.

    Across the pond on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell 0.3% to 42,374.36, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.2% to 5,809.86 and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) advanced 0.8% to 18,415.49.

    In the bond market, the yield on 10-year US Treasury notes dipped to 4.217% from 4.231% late on Wednesday. It has risen from 3.623% on 16 September.

    The yield has been rising in recent weeks partly because both candidates in the US presidential election are keen on spending money, which will widen the deficit, according to Mark Malek, chief investment officer at SiebertNXT in New York.

  • Coming up...

    Good morning, and welcome back to our markets live blog. As usual we will be taking a deep dive into what's moving markets, and all that's happening across the global economy.

    Here's a quick look at what's on the agenda for today:

    • 7am: Trading updates: Petra Diamonds

    • 9am: Eurozone consumer inflation expectations

    • 9am: IFO survey of German business confidence

    • 11.30am: Bank of Russia sets interest rates

    • 1.30pm: US durable goods orders for September

    • 3pm: University of Michigan poll of US consumer confidence

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