In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. (NYSE:LGF.A) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Step By Step Through The Calculation
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
Levered FCF ($, Millions)
-US$25.7m
US$232.3m
US$257.1m
US$276.0m
US$292.5m
US$307.1m
US$320.4m
US$332.8m
US$344.5m
US$355.9m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x5
Analyst x5
Analyst x4
Est @ 7.35%
Est @ 5.97%
Est @ 5.00%
Est @ 4.33%
Est @ 3.85%
Est @ 3.52%
Est @ 3.29%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 11%
-US$23.1
US$187
US$186
US$179
US$170
US$161
US$150
US$140
US$130
US$121
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$1.4b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.8%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 11%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$4.2b÷ ( 1 + 11%)10= US$1.4b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$2.8b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$8.6, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 27% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
NYSE:LGF.A Discounted Cash Flow March 31st 2025
Important Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Lions Gate Entertainment as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 11%, which is based on a levered beta of 2.000. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Good value based on P/S ratio and estimated fair value.
Threat
Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
Has less than 3 years of cash runway based on current free cash flow.
Total liabilities exceed total assets, which raises the risk of financial distress.
Not expected to become profitable over the next 3 years.
Looking Ahead:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Lions Gate Entertainment, we've put together three important factors you should look at:
Future Earnings: How does LGF.A's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
