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Many investors define successful investing as beating the market average over the long term. But the risk of stock picking is that you will likely buy under-performing companies. We regret to report that long term Liberty Global Ltd. (NASDAQ:LBTY.A) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 59% in three years, versus a market return of about 38%. Furthermore, it's down 46% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders.
With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
See our latest analysis for Liberty Global
Liberty Global isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally hope to see good revenue growth. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.
Over the last three years, Liberty Global's revenue dropped 11% per year. That is not a good result. With revenue in decline, and profit but a dream, we can understand why the share price has been declining at 17% per year. Of course, it's the future that will determine whether today's price is a good one. We'd be pretty wary of this one until it makes a profit, because we don't specialize in finding turnaround situations.
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
Liberty Global is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. If you are thinking of buying or selling Liberty Global stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst consensus estimates for future profits.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Liberty Global, it has a TSR of -21% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
Liberty Global shareholders are up 15% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. On the bright side, that's still a gain, and it's actually better than the average return of 1.5% over half a decade This could indicate that the company is winning over new investors, as it pursues its strategy. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Liberty Global better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Liberty Global you should be aware of, and 1 of them is potentially serious.